334. Defense Intelligence Notice Issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency1
Subj: DIA Defense Intelligence Notice (DIN) (U)
Philippines: Dissident activity. (U)
1. (C/Noforn) Major moderate opposition leaders issued a manifesto on 29 August denouncing President Marcos and demanding an end to his martial law regime. Meanwhile, violent dissidents launched a terror campaign in Manila last week, bombing business or government offices associated with Marcos or his cronies. Opposition activities will become more vocal and violent as the 21 September anniversary of the imposition of martial law nears. Although this opposition activity will be troublesome it does not portend the fall from power of the Marcos regime at least for the present time.
2. (C/Noforn) Marcos’ usually divided opponents closed ranks for the first time in 8 years of martial rule in striking their manifesto, which detailed a litany of martial law abuses. The document, signed by 71 members of 8 groups, lists 5 major goals of the coalition: the resignation of Marcos; the end of martial rule and the holding of free elections; social justice and economic independence; justice for minorities, especially Muslims; and freedom from foreign domination (US base presence). The manifesto, titled “National Covenant for Freedom,” did not offer details as to how the goals are to be achieved, but leaders promised that a definite program dealing specifically with social reform would be issued in the near future. For the present, oppositionists have vowed to launch a nationwide campaign for their covenant.
3. (C/Noforn) The President’s opponents see an opportunity to capitalize on what they think is an increasingly difficult economic situation and growing political discontent. The manifesto is viewed as the beginning of a broad-based effort to confront Marcos. By becoming [Page 1078] more vocal, oppositionists hope to evoke enough public pressure to force him out. Despite the enthusiastic kickoff of their campaign, the dissidents overestimate their own potential and underestimate the resilience of the Marcos government. The President retains the loyalty of his key military commanders through careful selection and promotion. In addition, the public may think that these old-line politicians simply wish to replace Marcos to promote their own interests.
4. (C/Noforn) The foremost opponent of Marcos, Benigno Aquino, is undergoing medical treatment in the US, and he recently warned of possible violence as the martial law anniversary approaches. In likely reaction to this warning, bombings occurred in Manila over the past week. Nine widely separated locations were hit by coordinated explosions on the afternoon of 22 August. Targets included banks, government offices, and shopping areas allegedly owned by Marcos or his associates. A second series of small explosions took place on the 25th in unoccupied areas of two theaters. Although two injuries resulted, the blasts were intended to attract attention rather than cause injury. Ten additional bomb threats were received, including one at the US Embassy.
5. (C/Noforn) There has been some speculation that the bombings were instigated by the government in a tactic similar to that used to justify the 1972 imposition of martial law. However, these incidents appear otherwise, since press reporting has been sparse and the document issued by those claiming credit has all the earmarks of an activist dissident group. A new group, the April 6th Liberation Movement, and one of its urban guerrilla units, the April 6th Sandigan, have claimed responsibility. The Sandigan label identifies the bombers as part of the armed force of the Social Democrats, who advocate open violence to overthrow Marcos; end martial law; and install their own government. Members of another group associated with the Social Democrats are now on trial for assassination planning, sedition, and arson in Manila.
6. [portion marking not declassified] The violence appears timed to coincide with the trial and the forthcoming martial law anniversary. Increased building security measures and additional security forces have been fielded. The army has also alerted special units trained in handling civil disturbances. Military leaders are content for now to leave this problem in the hands of local security elements. Additional bombings, perhaps aimed at more significant targets, may be provoked by what is likely to be increasingly strident rhetoric by the oppositionists as the 21 September date nears. However, a widespread wave of urban terrorism does seem in the offing.
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Defense/Security, Box 81, Refugees (Philippines). Top Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]↩