243. Telegram From the Embassy in Pakistan to the Department of State1
3935. CINCPAC for POLAD. Subject: Positions Harden as the Country Unravels.
Summary: The confrontation between Bhutto and the opposition sharpens against a backdrop of increasing violence and destruction of property in Pakistan. The PM will attempt to hold on to power as long as possible and has now armed and sent his supporters into the streets to confront Pakistan National Alliance followers. Bhutto continues to hold out an olive branch to the opposition but with negligible chances of acceptance. We believe the opposition, in face of Bhutto’s obduracy, will follow two courses—increase level of violence and paralyze the nation by disrupting essential public services. The PNA has placed central emphasis on removal of PM from office. Mufti Mahmud has now refined opposition demands to include President’s rule pending new elections. Situation on the ground continues to unravel. Students are more active, although labor has still not assumed major role in the movement nation-wide. Students are calling for hartals to disrupt transportation, PIA workers have gone on strike thereby grounding most PIA domestic and international flights. The Army still holds the key and we believe its position is unchanged—it does not want to be drawn into the conflict and wants a constitutional solution. We do not believe it will move until it sees all other options have disappeared. These other options still include President’s rule or the removal of the PM from power by the PPP parliamentary group. Likelihood of latter is quite small, and former improbable, if not imposed by Army, unless Bhutto agrees to go peacefully. If Army faced with stark choice of taking over or witnessing a complete breakdown of law and order and disruption of essential services, they would reluctantly choose the former. End summary.
[Omitted here is the body of the telegram.]
- Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D770249–0650, D770137–0354. Confidential; Niact Immediate. Sent for for information Priority to Dacca, Kabul, Karachi, Lahore, New Delhi, Paris, Tehran, and CINCPAC.↩