415. Telegram From the Embassy in El Salvador to the Department of State1
1336. Subj: Rightist Coup Imminent in El Salvador?
1. (S-Entire text)
2. During the last week the US Mission and the Salvadoran nation as a whole have been inundated with rumors that a rightist coup could come at any moment. We have taken these rumors seriously because there is every reason for the ultra-right to strike. From their viewpoint, the current JRG has transformed itself from a joke to a real menace to their vital interests. Although the JRG remains weak and ineffectual, [Page 1051] the right is realizing that it has the determination and authority to at least promulgate an agrarian reform law and may do so within the next week. The Junta may never be able to implement land reform but the very existence of such a law on the books could cause the masses in the countryside, backed by the armed revolutionary groups, to take this law into their own hands. Either way, powerful right wing forces see their interests as doomed. Consequently, they are actively plotting a coup and soliciting acquiescence if not support from the USG on the grounds that the producing classes are the last bulwark against a Communist onslaught that will engulf all of Central America, Mexico and finally the US. Even the relatively moderate members of the private sector who are prepared to accept some reforms are being forced to make common cause with the extreme right by the rapid economic deterioration which convinces them that time is running out and something drastic must be done to save the economy from collapse.
3. We have not only responded to these approaches but have sought out all conceivable participants in a rightist coup, particularly the military, to: (a) forcefully reiterate our support for the JRG; (b) make clear that such a coup would ignite a civil war that would have disastrous consequences for everyone; and (c) warn that they could not count on US support for such an adventure.
4. We are satisfied that this message has been communicated. We hope our warning will prove an effective deterrent, especially with the military which counts most heavily on US support. Our concern, however, is that the right in this country may be perceiving US actions elsewhere as contrary to our local message. Many on the right here appear to be interpreting our stand in South Asia, especially in Pakistan, as a shift in US policy away from insistence that regimes respect human rights and other USG interests and toward a less discriminating stance that asks only that regimes be anti-Communist. They also seem to be interpreting statements emanating from Washington as a return to the 1950s when the test the US applied to its Latin American allies was how stridently anti-Soviet they were. As one junior of Igarch (fanatical anti-Communist and likely coup plotter) told us this week, “We are aware that the pendulum in the United States is swinging our way; the Republicans best exemplify this so we intend to contribute to their victory.” We understand that a group is already in Washington representing this point of view and more are likely to follow.
5. All Mission officers are doing their best to convince the Salvadoran right that this is a mistaken interpretation of current US attitudes. We are telling them that the reality of their country is so threatening that repression and anti-Communist rhetoric unaccompanied by real reforms will not head off a leftist revolution. We know fundamental social change is necessary here and are willing to support the reforms. [Page 1052] The question is, are the Salvadoran military and civilian elites prepared to make any sacrifices of their own? A rightest coup now means the answer is no, not without a fight.2
- Source: Department of State, Bureau of Inter-American Affairs, Nicaragua/El Salvador Working Files, Lot 81D64, unlabeled folder. Secret; Niact Immediate; Exdis. Sent for information to Caracas, Guatemala City, Managua, Panama City, San José, Tegucigalpa, and Madrid.↩
- In his February 22 evening report to Carter, Vance noted right-wing coup plotting in El Salvador. He highlighted the Embassy’s effort to “make clear our support of the Junta, our opposition to a coup, and our inability to support a repressive rightist government.” Carter wrote in response: “We may have to support the more conservative group—then force democratic reforms and elections.” (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, North/South, Pastor Files, Country Files, Box 20, El Salvador: 2/12–24/80)↩