261. Paper Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
[Omitted here are a title page, security information page, and cover page.]
China and Southwest Asia: The Challenge of Afghanistan ([classification marking not declassified])
Overview
China sees the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as both a threat and an opportunity. It is concerned that Moscow has embarked on a new, [Page 705] aggressive global policy that seeks ultimately to obtain a stranglehold on Western oil supplies. ([classification marking not declassified])
Beijing believes that the outcome in Afghanistan will set the tone in world politics for years to come and that the Soviet action thus poses a fundamental test for the West. In Beijing’s view, Western acquiescence in Soviet action in Afghanistan will only embolden Moscow and will also lead to international acceptance of the Vietnamese conquest of Kampuchea, where Chinese security interests are more directly at stake. ([classification marking not declassified])
For Beijing, the Soviet invasion is an opportunity to advance three key foreign policy objectives: to discredit detente politics in the West; to drive a wedge between the Third World and Moscow; and, most important, to prod the United States into a tougher anti-Soviet stance. With these goals in mind, China is pursuing the same policies in Southwest Asia that it has pushed in the region for several years, although with new emphasis, along the following lines. ([classification marking not declassified])
Engage the West in the Region. At the heart of Beijing’s strategy is its effort to get the United States to renew its close ties with Pakistan. It wants Washington to give Pakistan a strong security guarantee and enough military aid to encourage Islamabad to resist firmly the Soviet presence in the region. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
Reassure Pakistan. China has given Pakistan constant reassurance of its support since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and has sent separate high-level political and military delegations to Islamabad. Although China has publicly stated its willingness to aid Pakistan, it has not offered a firm security guarantee or given Pakistan any new military assistance. China is known to be concerned about the stability and the anti-Soviet steadfastness of the Zia-ul-Haq regime. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
Encourage Regional Harmony. Beijing seeks, over the long term, to create an informal, Western-backed alliance of Southwest Asian countries that can firmly resist further Soviet encroachment in the region. As a key element of this policy, China is encouraging Pakistan to improve ties with India while itself attempting to mend its own relations with New Delhi. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
Bog the Soviets Down in Afghanistan. China seeks to make Moscow pay the highest political price possible for its intervention. It thus opposes any plan to neutralize Afghanistan or any attempts at a compromise solution that would leave the Soviets in control. Beijing is supporting all international measures to isolate the Soviets and is encouraging other countries to aid the Afghan rebels. It is not clear what [Page 706] assistance—if any—China has given the rebels; Beijing has reportedly sought to assist the rebels through Pakistan, but its effort has met some resistance from Islamabad. ([classification marking and codeword not declassified])
A number of factors constrain China’s ability to achieve its policy goals and limit the role that Washington can play in the region. Longstanding tensions between the major states in the region limit the cooperation Beijing advocates. China has few positive inducements to offer and is still regarded with suspicion by India, which is the key to the success of this strategy. With the possible exception of Pakistan, there is at present no country that is seeking a greater US security role in the region. Pakistan, India, and some Iranian leaders believe, to varying degrees, that a strong anti-Soviet policy is not in their best interests. ([classification marking not declassified])
Despite these problems, in the months ahead, China will probably persist in its current policy in the region. Over the longer run, however, it may make tactical adjustments to those policies that it believes are not working. One likely area of adjustment is in Chinese policy toward India, where Beijing seems to be willing to go further toward accommodating New Delhi’s interests than before. The persistent plea for more US aid to Pakistan, a greater US military presence, and a firm US commitment to meet any new Soviet action in the region is unlikely to change. ([classification marking not declassified])
[Omitted here is the body of the paper.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, Office of Support Services, Job 81T00208R: Production Case Files, Box 4, China and Southwest Asia: The Challenge of Afghanistan. Top Secret; [codeword and handling restriction not declassified]. A statement on the cover page reads: “The author of this paper is [name not declassified] Office of Political Analysis. This paper has been coordinated with the Offices of Economic Research and Strategic Research and with the National Intelligence Officer for China/East Asia and Pacific and for the Near East and South Asia.”↩