260. Spot Report Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
SUBJECT
- Recent Upsurge in Land Mine and Anti-tank Rocket Incidents Inside Afghanistan Indicates that Our Weapons Aid to the Afghan Rebels is Having Some Successes
1. Summary: Preliminary analysis of [less than 1 line not declassified] indicates that circa mid-March 1980 Soviet and DRA forces in Afghanistan began noting significant increases in rebel land mine and anti-tank rocket attacks. This upsurge in such incidents closely coincides with January–February 1980 passage to rebels of land mines, RPG–7 anti-tank rockets and RPG–7 rocket launchers.
2. Land Mines: Prior to mid-March 1980 the Soviet and DRA armies encountered very few land mines, but during the first two and one half weeks of April 1980 the Soviets alone had 23 vehicles (including 12 tanks and 8 APC’s) damaged or destroyed, with nine Soviets killed and three wounded. This prompted the Soviets to arrange for priority air shipment of minesweeping equipment into Afghanistan. The total land mine incidents suffered by DRA forces is not known (only 10% of the data has been analyzed), but preliminary information indicates that the DRA has suffered even more than the Soviets. Various reports by DRA forces of actual land mine explosions and other indirect evidence show Afghan exile groups infiltrating the land mines all along the Pakistan border. In addition to the 1,000 Czech land mines supplied the rebels by 26 February 1980, the Paks have supplied an additional 700 land mines to the rebels.
3. Anti-tank Rockets: Prior to mid-March 1980 DRA and Soviet armies reported few instances of anti-tank rockets being fired by rebel bands. However, beginning mid-March 1980 [less than 1 line not declassified] showed a significant increase in rebel anti-tank rocket attacks. For [Page 704] example, on 3 April 1980, the DRA 14th Division in Ghazni noted the destruction of two APC’s by rebel rocket attack inside the city of Ghazni—a new rebel tactic. On 15 April 1980 the DRA 17th Division in Herat reported its first rebel anti-tank rocket attack; and two days later seven armored vehicles struck by anti-tank rockets were seen in the Herat area. [less than 1 line not declassified] traffic has not been scanned for reports of anti-tank rockets used against Soviet armor, but we suspect that the rebels are also using these weapons against the Soviets. By 26 February 1980 127 launchers and 1,404 RPG–7 rounds had been passed to the rebels, with 33 launchers and 1,000 rockets scheduled for current shipments.
4. Proof of Arms/Ammo Infiltration Success: Two detailed reports by a source with Gailani’s Peshawar exile group on weapons he actually saw being funnelled from the Paks to Gailani closely match with reports from Pakistan liaison on weapons and ammunition passed to Gailani.
5. Combined Soviet/DRA Armor: The Soviet and DRA armies in Afghanistan now have over 4,000 tanks and other armored vehicles, plus approximately 20,000 trucks and other vehicles.
6. A senior NSA analyst on 24 April 1980 noted “both a qualitative and a quantitative increase in rebel capabilities during the past five weeks,” thus adding some credence to our preliminary analysis.
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 82M00501R: 1980 Subject Files, Box 12, C–367, 01 Jan–30 Jun 80, Afghanistan. Secret. Prepared in the Directorate of Operations. Attached but not printed are Cogawn’s May 5 covering memorandum to Carlucci and a list of arms deliveries to Afghan rebel forces. The list was divided into four components. The first listed weapons shipments prior to April 1, totaling [text not declassified] excluding the cost for the SA–7s that had been shipped. The second listed weapons shipped or scheduled for shipment from Egypt, totaling approximately [text not declassified] The third listed weapons shipped from other unspecified sources totaling approximately [text not declassified] The fourth listed proposed shipment from Egypt (subject to change) totaling approximately [text not declassified] Also attached but not printed are two maps of Afghanistan indicating the locations of rebel anti-tank rocket and land mine attacks against Soviet forces.↩