189. Intelligence Assessment Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
[Omitted here are a title page, security information page, and cover page.]
Afghanistan: The Economy Under Marxism [classification marking not declassified]
Summary
Even before the December 1979 Soviet invasion, Afghanistan’s economy was faltering and its minimal economic gains had ground to a halt. Land and credit reforms initiated by the pro-Soviet Marxist government that took power in April 1978 caused major disruptions in economic activity and helped spark the insurgency that has now spread throughout the country. ([classification marking not declassified])
Kabul’s land reform program, coupled with unfavorable weather in 1979, resulted in a drop of 400,000–500,000 metric tons in wheat production. Government attempts to tighten control over commerce produced frequent shortages of essential goods and led to capital flight by bazaar merchants, who are a major factor in overall trade and economic activity. ([classification marking not declassified])
Since the Soviet invasion, economic activity has slumped further. The insurgents are hampering food and fuel deliveries to Kabul. In the capital, the Soviet-backed Babrak government has imposed price controls on items such as meat and tea and established special distribution centers for essential commodities. ([classification marking not declassified])
Longstanding Afghan-Soviet trade and economic aid ties are likely to be strengthened in the wake of the Soviet invasion. Soviet economic support is critical for Kabul now that Western aid donors have suspended their small but important programs and multilateral financial institutions have halted disbursements pending a reviewing of their operations. Even with Soviet help, the durability of the Babrak regime is in doubt because it has failed to rally popular support and it is viewed by nearly all Afghanis as atheistic and anti-Islam. ([classification marking not declassified])
[Omitted here is the body of the assessment.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Job 81T00315R, Box 6, Afghanistan: The Economy Under Marxism, ER 80–10120. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. A statement on the title page reads: “The author of this paper is [text not declassified] Developing Nations Division, Office of Economic Research. This paper was coordinated with the Offices of Political Analysis and Geographic and Cartographic Research.”↩