116. Telegram From the Embassy in Afghanistan to the Department of State1
8680. Subj: Sitrep No. 12: Soviet Occupation of Kabul.
1. (C—Entire text.)
2. As the second full day of the Soviet occupation of Kabul draws to a close, there is one overwhelming fact evident to all observers here. All meaningful authority in this city is exercised by the Soviet Army, with Afghan participation limited to the traffic police, and a diminishing number of machine-gun toting civilians with white arm bands who apparently are supposed to give the current situation some semblance of legitimacy. We hesitate to risk belaboring this point, but we think it is worth emphasizing that heavily armed Soviet troopers and armored equipment are stationed at every important point throughout the city, they control traffic around the important arteries and crossroads, and they continue to move at will individually and in large units to various destinations. In short, the Afghans do not exercise even a modicum of real control over their own capital.
3. Embassy personnel late today observed an almost uninterrupted stream of Soviet armored equipment and troops moving into Kabul from the north over the only paved road heading to the Salang Pass and the USSR. At this point, we are unable to say whether these forces were flown into Bagram Air Base about 25 miles north on the same highway, or whether they came overland all the way from Central Asia. At about 1615 a contingent of twenty-one BMDs, some with towed artillery, and supporting equipment passed the Embassy heading into the center of the city. At 1800, at least twenty BMPs and fifteen BMDs, each with about 6–8 Soviet troopers riding on top, passed the Embassy, also heading in the direction of downtown Kabul. We doubt that these units are ultimately destined for deployment in the city, and presume that they may be on their way to some position on the outskirts to augment the Soviet perimeter now encircling the capital. These movements, however, give some feel for the magnitude of the Soviet Army’s activity today as it apparently reinforces and repositions its forces in order to ensure its grip on Kabul.
[Page 327]3. One interesting detail is that Embassy officers have seen certain Soviet units digging in on the perimeter around the city, apparently in an effort to safeguard against any attack from the insurgents or from hostile Afghan Army units. Armored vehicles, including tanks, have been seen in makeshift bunkers. Although it is more likely that the Afghan Army in the field that was fighting for Hafizullah Amin will simply vanish into the hills, rather than take on elite units of the Soviet Army, we cannot rule out the possibility that some army units or individuals may attempt to vent their anti-Russian feelings by kamikaze raids or infiltration into the city in hopes of zapping a few of the “Russian invaders.”
4. One wrinkle on the political front is that we have no firm evidence as yet that Babrak Karmal and his colleagues are actually in Kabul trying to forge their new government. Babrak’s recorded statement first heard the night of the Soviet attack continues to be played intermittently, but there has been no other broadcast by him or any other member of the new leadership.2 Under “normal” coup situations, such as April 1978, the new leader usually broadcasts his success as soon as that takeover is apparent. Since Kabul also has a generally functioning TV station, we find it curious that Babrak has not yet trumpeted in person his accession to power.
5. On the operational front, Kabul Airport opened to a couple of civilian flights this afternoon, including an Indian Airlines flight and one from Ariana. We have also heard the story, from a reliable source, that the telephone lines, which have been out since the first minutes of the takeover due to satchel charges or grenades planted at Kabul’s PTT, may be dead for another month.
6. Finally, we note the East German news agency statement reported in FBIS Trends (28 December 79 USSR-Afghanistan) that the Soviet units will be withdrawn “as soon as the causes for this action no longer exist.” Since the Soviet action was taken to impose a different but still Communist regime on Afghanistan, we anticipate that these Soviet military units and their successors may be in Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan for an extended duration.
7. A late item is that the Intercontinental Hotel is providing 200 preheated meals to Radio Afghanistan for the “old government and the new government.” This report is sketchy, but it appears that some officials of the Amin regime are being held next door to us, while some [Page 328] unidentified members of the Babrak government may also be biding their time in the Radio Afghanistan complex.
8. This will be the last sitrep for tonight unless events warrant further reporting.
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Cables File, Box 1, Afghanistan: 12/30/79. Confidential; Niact Immediate; Sensitive. Sent for information Priority to Ankara, Beijing, Islamabad, London, Moscow, New Delhi, USNATO, CINCPAC (also for POLAD), CINCEUR (also for POLAD), and USICA. Printed from a copy that was received in the White House Situation Room.↩
- Karmal’s statement was quoted in telegram 332986 to all diplomatic and consular posts, December 28. In the statement, carried by Radio Kabul, Karmal pledged that his government would guarantee “democratic rights of all classes of society and respect the holy faith of Islam and the clergy.” (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D790595–1188)↩