55. Memorandum Prepared by the Iran Task Force, Central Intelligence Agency1
SUBJECT
- Iranian Exiles and Exile Movement
Almost all of our information on Iranian exiles and their organization comes from reports from new sources or from the exiles themselves. Much of the information that follows has not been substantiated by more than one source. [portion marking not declassified]
The main figures in the opposition movement among exiles appear to be Shahpour Bakhtiar, General Jam, General Oveisi and Nahavandi—with Bakhtiar as the leading figure. [portion marking not declassified]
We do not think at the present time any of the exiles or exile groups pose a challenge to the Khomeini regime in Iran. Most exiles, though perhaps supporting one or more leaders with their money, have not wished to get involved in an organized movement. Many exiles in Europe do not want to become involved in opposition activities because they fear reprisals against their relatives in Iran. Many in the middle [Page 145] class and the military in Iran fear that opposition to Khomeini would lead to a civil war where the leftists would be the final victors.
Bakhtiar, with small offices in Paris and London, appears to be the only exile leader with an established organization. Some Iranian businessmen have recently attempted to organize wealthy exiles to support Bakhtiar. An unconfirmed report of the establishment in September of a Paris Coordinating Group is the first sign of a coalition effort among exile groups. [portion marking not declassified]
[Omitted here is detailed material on Bakhtiar, Jam, and Nahavandi.]
Paris Coordinating Group of Iranian Oppositionists
There are reports that an organization composed of four different groups—the Iranian National Front, the National Democratic Front, the Mujahadin and the Fedayeen E-Khalq—has been formed in Paris, although a coalition of these four groups seems unlikely. The group calls itself Ittihad-e-Melli (National Union) and Bakhtiar is the nominal head. [portion marking not declassified]
The agreement of the four groups to form an organization is apparently still subject to ratification by each group. The groups will still have separate command structures and operate independently. The group claims it has received messages of encouragement from Shariat-Madari, Hosein Montazari, Mohammad Golpayegani and Sadeq al-Tuhani as well as having the support of some monarchists and bazaaris. They have no contact with the Arab minority in Khuzistan. [portion marking not declassified]
They see the principal obstacle to their success as being Khomeini’s grip on the lower levels of the clergy and through them on the large number of undereducated and unemployed youth of Iran. [portion marking not declassified]
The organization supports PLO self determination even though it has no contacts with the PLO. It favors autonomy status for Iranian minority nationalities and has sent financial aid to the Kurds. It has been unsuccessful in getting Tudeh party support. [portion marking not declassified]
Shadow Government
[less than 1 line not declassified] Iranian expatriates in Paris are attempting to form a shadow government and have chosen candidates for top government positions.2 There is no information on whether these individuals have been contacted. The group claims high level [Page 146] contacts with at least two Persian Gulf governments—one [is] Saudi Arabia. They have not approached major Western governments yet. No firm pledges of support have come from any governments.
[Omitted here is a list of proposed Ministers, a list of exiles and the countries within which they reside, information on Bakhtiar’s London and Paris offices, and a list of former Iranian military officers residing in the United States.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81M00919R: Executive Registry Subject Files (1976–1979), Box 14, Folder 11: C–372 Iran. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified].↩
- See Document 20.↩