24. Paper Prepared by the Interagency Group1
Political Actions Contingency Planning
At SCC direction, David Aaron chaired a small interagency meeting to consider political action/intelligence aspects of the Iran crisis. The following points emerged:
—The key issue is whether we now want to undermine Khomeini with a view to his overthrow. Up to now, we have tried to get along with him in the hopes that moderates associated with him will prevail. The assessment is that Khomeini is no longer in control of events, that leftward radicalization is increasing and that a struggle for power is under way. The moderates and we may be better off without Khomeini than with him.
—[1 paragraph (14½ lines) not declassified]
—If we decide to try any of this, should we begin before the hostage issue is resolved? No one had a clear assessment of whether stirring up divisions among the current leadership would increase or reduce Khomeini’s flexibility or the chances of getting the hostages back safely.
Finally, it should be stressed that at this point we cannot be confident that we can actually overthrow Khomeini and install a moderate regime. We can influence a process that is already underway but not control it. There are very preliminary planning judgments that will now get systematic scrutiny and assessment on a very close hold basis.
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Country File, Box 29, Iran 11/1/79–11/14/79. Secret. A handwritten note by Carter reads: “Zbig: I need to meet with Stan and David.” The interagency group, established at the November 10 SCC meeting and chaired by Aaron, is referred to as “the small group,” the “working group,” the “interagency group,” the “Aaron group,” or the “black group.”↩