167. Paper Prepared by the Joint Task Force1
HOSTAGE RESCUE
[Omitted here is the body of the paper (7 pages).]
6. Summary: The US team of men and machines is capable of performing the mission. Two important facilities remain undetermined: the drop-off point for Delta and a holding area for Delta in Tehran. Assuming satisfactory determination of these facilities, we assess the probability of the team’s mechanical capability to complete the mission at 60–70%. We assess the capability of Iran to frustrate the mission at 15–30%. Although the future threat to the hostages is unpredictable we believe that certain indicators and events would enable the US to ascertain when the safety of the hostages becomes seriously jeopardized. The useful life of the US team cannot be protracted indefinitely. The existence of the force could be compromised and operational security lost at anytime. We are unable to predict how long OPSEC can be maintained, but judge it to be in the range of an additional two to six weeks. Effective strategic and tactical deception should enable the mission to be conducted without prior knowledge of Iran or Russia.
- Source: Department of Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff Records, RG 218–07–0002, Records of J–3 DDSO, Box 12, Iranian Hostage Crisis, unnamed folder. Top Secret.↩