166. Memorandum From the Director for Operations, Joint Chiefs of Staff (Shutler), to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Jones)1
SUBJECT
- Conditions for Hostage Rescue Attempt
1. (TS) The attached paper by the JTF explores the factors affecting a decision to rescue the hostages. The summary on page 8 gives a good thumbnail sketch of the analysis.2
2. (TS) It appears to me that three external conditions can apply:
a. Hostages secure. Negotiations continuing as at present.
b. Hostages gravely threatened by current captors, other competing politically oriented terrorist organizations, or mob action during chaos.
c. One or more hostages injured or killed.
3. (TS) The odds on success (60–70% in execution tempered by 15–30% possibility of disruption) do not appear to be high enough to warrant an attempt under current conditions. If we wait until hostages have been injured or killed, the pressure to act will be so high, and the situation in Iran so uncertain, that the odds for success would certainly be drastically reduced. The hard part will be to recognize a time of increased danger and to act accordingly. The team is continuing to refine plans to deploy, in particular to get to the shortest response time consistent with operational security. [4 lines not declassified]
Very respectfully,
Lieutenant General, USMC
Director for Operations
- Source: Department of Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff Records, RG 218–98–0064, Records of J–3 DDSO, Box 1, DOD Intel Experience (Iran Hostage Rescue). Top Secret; Eyes Only.↩
- The January 25 untitled paper is attached but not printed; the summary is printed as Document 167.↩