Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume II, Human Rights and Humanitarian Affairs

275. Memorandum From Secretary of Agriculture Bergland to President Carter¹

Washington, July 16, 1980

SUBJECT

• East African Food Shortages

Emerging drought problems and growing numbers of refugees are adding to already serious food shortage problems in East Africa. The purpose of this memorandum is to alert you to this problem since it is becoming a serious international concern.

I am enclosing a brief USDA assessment of the East Africa food situation.² Given the limited amount and poor quality of data on these countries our current assessment is very tentative. However, there are several conclusions and implications that can be drawn at this time.

During the July 1980–June 1981 period, the eight countries in the East African area (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia) could require between 1.0 and 1.4 million metric tons of cereal imports over and above the relatively high import levels of approximately 1.5 million metric tons for the previous twelve months. A substantial portion of these increased imports will be concentrated in Ethiopia and Somalia to primarily meet refugee needs. These two countries account for about two-thirds of the increased import requirements to the region.

Out of the 1.5 million metric tons imported by these eight countries during the last twelve months, approximately half was made available as food aid. The U.S. has supplied over one-third of the total—most of it as P.L. 480 on either concessional terms under Title I or as food donations under Title II totaling 588,000 metric tons (excluding the recent supplemental).

The recent appropriation of the P.L. 480 budget supplemental³ has greatly enhanced our ability to meet emergency needs as well as program commitments worldwide and in Africa in particular. Current projections indicate that the U.S. will be able to provide an additional 150,000 metric tons of food to most of the eight East African countries.

If Congress takes favorable action on the amended FY 1981 P.L. 480 budget you submitted earlier this year, the U.S. would be in a position next fiscal year to provide approximately 200–300,000 metric tons of P.L. 480 assistance beyond the FY 1980 level (excluding the supplemental).⁴ Thus, together with the 150,000 metric tons provided by the FY 1980 supplemental, the U.S. would be able to commit a total of 350–450,000 metric tons of additional food towards meeting the projected additional import need of 1.0–1.4 million metric tons over the next twelve months.

In summary, it is clear that even under the most optimistic projections, the U.S. only will be able to meet a part of East Africa’s increasing food import needs through our P.L. 480 program. Increased commitments from other donors, as well as increased commercial purchases, will be required.

Bob Bergland

1. Source: Minnesota Historical Society, Mondale Papers, Vice Presidential Papers, Central Files, AG 8, World Food Problem. No classification marking. According to an attached July 17 routing slip, information copies were sent to Mondale, Eizenstat, Moore, Brzezinski, and McIntyre.
2. Not found.
3. Reference is to the Supplemental Appropriations and Rescission Act of 1980 (H.R. 7542; P.L. 96–304), which the President signed into law on July 8. The Act contained an amendment offered by Representatives Floyd Fithian (D–Indiana) and Andrew Maguire (D–New Jersey), which restored $42 million of the Carter administration’s FY 1980 P.L. 480 budget request. See Helen Dewar, “$16 Billion Stopgap Appropriations Bills Approved by House,” The Washington Post, June 20, 1980, p. A–2 and Richard M. Harley, “Congress ups food aid while toeing budget line,” The Christian Science Monitor, July 9, 1980, p. 7.
4. See Document 265 and footnote 9 thereto. Testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on February 5 in support of the administration’s FY 1981 foreign assistance programs, Vance noted: “For FY 1981 we are requesting a $1.6 billion Food for Peace program. These funds will provide an estimated 6 million metric tons of agricultural commodities. In addition, we will request through a budget amendment an addition of $100 million to make use of some of the grain which would have been available to the Soviet Union. In the distribution of our Food for Peace, priority is directed to feeding hungry people, particularly refugees in Kampuchea, southern Africa, and Somalia, and to helping reduce balance-of-payments problems in Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nicaragua, the Sudan, and other countries experiencing economic difficulties.” (Department of State Bulletin, March 1980, p. 41)