Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume E–11, Part 2, Documents on South America, 1973–1976

26. Interagency Intelligence Memorandum DCI/NIO No. 671–75¹

Washington, March 19, 1975.

ARGENTINA: PROSPECTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS²

CONCLUSIONS

Mrs. Perón’s position has eroded since our last assessment. She will probably remain in office over the next three months, but the outlook for the remainder of the year is not favorable. Deteriorating economic and political conditions will have a serious impact on her political support and will reduce her prospects. The major power sectors in the country—the military, labor, and the opposition parties—are beginning to accept the prospect of a shift in leadership, but they want the constitutional system to remain intact. If Mrs.Perón does step down, the most likely outcome is that a constitutional successor would be found to preside over a caretaker regime until elections.

[Omitted here is the Discussion section.]

1. Summary: The memorandum concluded that while President Perón did not face an immediate threat, it was unlikely her regime would last through the end of 1975. Despite possible friction due to the 1974 Trade Act and increased terrorism, prospects for harmonious U.S.-Argentine relations appeared good.

   Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R01042: Policy Files (1974–1976), Box 4, IIM Argentina: Prospects Over the Next Several Months. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. This memorandum updates Memorandum DCI/NIO No. 2721–74 of December 10, 1974, published as Document 24.

2. This memorandum was prepared under the auspices of the National Intelligence Officer for Latin America. It was drafted in CIA and has been reviewed with representatives of CIA, INR, DIA, and Treasury and endorsed by them. [Footnote in the original.]