472. Telegram 2393 From the Embassy in Barbados to the Department of State1
2393. Subj: Grenada’s Election.
Begin summary: On Tuesday, December 7, approx 60,000 Grenadians are expected to vote for the fifteen House of Assembly seats and thus to determine the composition of the next govt. Running against PriMin Eric M. Gairy’s Grenada United Labour Party (GULP) is a coalition of three opposition parties, the moderate Grenada National Party (GNP), the radical leftist New Jewel Movement (NJM) and a one-man [Page 1228] paper party, the United People’s Party (UPP). The opposition coalition (“The People’s Alliance”) is dominated by the NJM, which has supplied eight of its fourteen candidates and virtually all of its campaign workers.
Until recently, the Embassy felt Gairy could probably win even an honest election but that, in any case, a fair contest was unlikely. However, recent developments indicate the govt party is in trouble and stands a better than 50–50 chance of losing the election. While the Alliance’s moderate parties (GNP and UPP) might possibly control an Alliance govt if their successful candidates outnumber those elected by the NJM, this appears unlikely. In our view, an Alliance govt, if elected, will probably be, with the exception of Cuba, the most radical and noisily anti-U.S. regime in the hemisphere, albeit a regime controlling one of the world’s smallest and poorest independent states. Both GULP and Alliance victories at the polls, as well as two possible concomitant non-mutually exclusive outcomes—a preemptive Gairy coup and an NJM armed uprising—pose some threat to the post-election safety of American citizen residents. The extent of this threat cannot be determined at the present time. End summary.
1. The Issues: Communism, Christianity, Czechoslovakia—and Clancy. Although Gairy has embarked on the expected pre-election effort to repair roads and otherwise improve the superficial appearance of his domain and well-being of its people, the electoral battle has become almost exclusively a fight over “rights.” GULP propaganda describes the Alliance as a front for the NJM, which in turn is the local incarnation of “godless communism” bent on the ruthless destruction of the church and family. Increasingly strident GULP radio propaganda draws heavily on the 1948 Czech coup and allegations that an Alliance govt would “turn churches into discoteques” and deport “foreigners” (read U.S. fraud fugitive Elmer Zeek, alias John Clancy) who have helped Grenada recover from hurricane Jewel. The opposition is relying on its criticism of Gairy’s record of oppression, including amatuerish police brutality, his failure to score with any of his sometimes bizarre development schemes, and his often erratic and sometimes ludicrous public conduct.
2. The Campaign: By far the major surprise has been the vigor and competence of the NJM effort. In addition to their effective stumping, youthful NJM cadre have cross-indexed the voting rolls in an attempt to short circuit Gairy’s assumed plans to have his supporters vote in more than one constituency. The Alliance, in spite of Gairy’s attempts at provocation, have been careful not to give the govt any pretext to cancel the election.
3. The Voters: Gairy’s power base is the older, rural segment of Grenada’s 105,000 citizens. Many of these, however, are reported to [Page 1229] plan not to vote at all. Apparently, while remaining sufficiently grateful for Gairy’s past efforts in reforming the plantation system to refrain from voting Alliance, many of these voters are displeased enough with the PM’s recent antics to withhold their votes. The “youth” (18–35 age) generally are anti-Gairy, and the fact that the electorate has increased 53 percent—an increase made up entirely of 18–26 year olds—is an ominous sign for his chances.
4. Stealing the Election? Given the NJM’s effort and the island’s electoral system, it will be difficult if not impossible for the govt to rig the election. Alliance supporters actually claim that, if stealing votes can be reduced to only 15 percent, they’re in.
5. “The Man:” As already noted, Gairy himself is a major issue. During a two-hour talk with an Embassy officer on December 4, Gairy professed restrained optimism that the GULP would win. He expressed concern, however, over the fact that—according to him—the NJM is armed for a post-election coup.
6. The Outcome: As we see it, the respective chances of GULP and the Alliance for winning the election are 35–65. However, GULP can at best win narrowly, while there is, in our view, a 25 percent chance of an Alliance sweep. No one questions that an Alliance victory would result in the NJM “co-ordinator,” Maurice Bishop, becoming PriMin (in the present govt GULP holds 14 of 15 seats, the fifteenth being held by the GNP leader, Herbert Blaise).
7. After the Election: If the opposition wins big, Gairy is expected to either (a) use force in an attempt to annul the result, or (b) flee the country. A narrow Alliance victory might tempt him to remain in the hope that the Alliance’s component elements would quarrel among themselves and that the GULP could abet and take advantage of intra-Alliance divisions.
8. Violence?: An Alliance victory, even without a coup attempt by Gairy, would probably involve some violence by NJM supporters. However, it would probably be minor and could be quickly controlled. A Gairy attempt to blatantly steal the election will provoke the NJM to fight back and it is believed they have at least enough arms to cause real trouble. (The lone British Govt official stationed on Grenada believes the NJM to have a cache of mostly stolen arms.) In the event of a fight, the police are expected to remain largely neutral and the defense force to support Gairy.
9. Danger to U.S. Citizens: We do not expect post election violence to be specifically directed at foreigners. We have, however, reviewed E&E planning, informally coordinated with the British and Canadians and have plans to send an officer to the island if serious problems develop. On a Dec. 4–6 visit, an Embassy Off contacted key resident Americans and made plans to contact them again, if necessary. The [Page 1230] British official stationed on Grenada has established evacuation procedures and has promised to also assist Americans wanting to leave. At this juncture, it is impossible to determine the extent of the threat to foreigners.
10. U.S. Interests: While our interests in a micro-island state like Grenada are relatively minor, they clearly will not be well served if the island is controlled by either an erratic dictator (which Gairy must become if he survives) or the pro-Cuba NJM. Unfortunately, there is scant probability of any third alternative. Moderate Alliance supporters profess to believe the GNP/UPP can control the NJM after an electoral victory or that the NJM is not all that radical. As we see it, they are whistling in the dark. An Alliance govt, no matter how it comes to power, will be a NJM show, E.E., authoritarian, pro-Cuban and anti-American, and it is doubtful there will ever be another free election in Grenada.
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Summary: The Embassy reported that the party of Grenadian Prime Minister Gairy was likely to lose forthcoming elections to an opposition coalition led by the New Jewel Movement, which it characterized as a radical, pro-Cuban organization.
Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D760451–1082. Confidential; Immediate. Repeated to Caracas, Georgetown, Kingston, Nassau, and Port of Spain. In telegram 2416 from Bridgetown, December 8, the Embassy reported that the December 7 elections in Grenada had been peaceful and that Gairy’s party had apparently won a majority in the Grenadian legislature. (Ibid., D760453–1137)
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