Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume E–10, Documents on American Republics, 1969–1972

551. Intelligence Memorandum 1297/71¹ ²

OCI No. 1297/71

Washington, July 13, 1971

Assessment of Panamanian strategy on canal negotiations and position on the perpetuity issue

Conclusions

1. We believe that the Panamanian negotiating strategy calls for an extremely tough initial presentation followed by a period of threats and pressures, during which time Torrijos will make every effort to get the best possible deal from the US. During this period there is a substantial risk of a violent confrontation developing.

2. Given the historic importance of the perpetuity issue and the concessions granted in the 1967 drafts, in our judgment the Panamanians are serious about obtaining a treaty with a fixed termination date, and there is relatively little flexibility on this issue.

[Omitted here is the remainder of the memorandum.]

1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H–224, Panama Canal Treaty Negotiations, NSDM 115. Secret; Sensitive; No Foreign Dissem; Background Use Only. Prepared in the Directorate of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
2. The Central Intelligence Agency predicted that President Torrijos’ strategy would be to negotiate in a very tough manner and that a violent confrontation within Panama was likely.