348. Letter From the Country Director for Laos and Cambodia (Herz) to the Ambassador to Laos (Sullivan)1
Dear Mr. Ambassador:
At Bill Bundy’s request, the enclosed study2 was prepared during the last week and approved by him March 23. Copies have been sent to [Page 680] the Secretary, the Under Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and Walt Rostow, among others. The drafting was done by this office, the Thai Desk, our lawyers (for Part III and the legal annex) and DOD/ISA (for the military sections). The Joint Staff was represented by General Andrews (J–5) and CIA [less than 1 line of source text not declassified]. Our basic mandate was to consider the most dire outcome of current DRV military activities and decide what we should or could do to counter it.
The paper was prepared at the time that a SNIE was concluding that the DRV did not intend to push in force to the Mekong, a conclusion shared by all agencies and the participants in our exercise.
The urgent need to produce the study precluded consultation with either you or Len Unger. I would, however, welcome your comments and assessment because there is no doubt in my mind that we shall be addressing these or related problems repeatedly in the foreseeable future. As you know, such studies are usually prepared as the result of much pressure from high places and it is difficult to question the premises without seeming to fight the problem. At one meeting, DOD/ISA (Dick Steadman) propounded the view that the enemy had the capability of effectively taking the Panhandle in a matter of days. The ensuing discussion was most educational.
Despite the haste in producing this paper, I am satisfied that it is a fairly reasonable assessment; and it was certainly an eye-opener in regard to our military capability to react.
Sincerely yours,
- Source: Department of State,EA/Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia Files: Lot 75 D 394, TS. Top Secret; Official-Informal.↩
- See the attachment to Document 350.↩
- Printed from a copy that bears this typed signature.↩