Office of the Historian

58. Special Memorandum1

No. 18-65
Washington, July 15, 1965.

SUBJECT

  • Soviet Tactics Concerning Vietnam

SUMMARY

The new Soviet-DRV economic and military aid agreement implies a stepup in Soviet arms shipments and will have the effect of deepening the Soviet commitment in Vietnam. Partly in order to contain the risks of this commitment, the USSR has of late intensified private approaches to the US, indicating continued interest in a negotiated settlement. At the same time, it has threatened in low key to make trouble in Berlin if the US remains unyielding in Vietnam. We believe that this combination of tactics is intended to deter further US escalation in Vietnam. It is also meant to prepare for the time when negotiations might become feasible, and the USSR can play a larger role in Vietnam.

[Here follows the 6-page estimate.]

  1. Source: Department of State, EA/ACA Files: Lot 69 D 277, Communist Positions & Initiatives—Soviet. Secret; No Foreign Dissem. Prepared by the Office of National Estimates, Central Intelligence Agency. Forwarded to William Bundy by Sherman Kent under a July 15 covering memorandum.↩