250. Despatch From the Embassy in Korea to the Department of State0
SUBJECT
- Democrats Look to 1960
Summary
As the 1960 presidential elections approach, apprehension among Democratic Party leaders has increased that the Administration is [Page 510] determined to retain power by every available means, including repressive and illegal measures. The views expressed in the two memoranda of conversation enclosed1 with this despatch are believed to be typical of Democratic Party thinking and feelings in this respect.
Professing an ability to discern a strong current of popular sentiment running against the Liberal Party and the present Administration, Democratic Party leaders are confident they can win the 1960 presidential contest, if the elections are completely free. Recent developments–including the Yongil “B” incident, the government’s proposals to amend the National Security Law, and the likelihood that the Administration will by-pass the scheduled upper house elections–coupled with the previous campaign experiences of the Democrats, however, have persuaded party leaders that the government probably will not permit a free election. This forecast of the government’s intentions also rests upon an assessment of the personality of President Rhee and of the influence which his personality exerts over government officials and Liberal Party members at all ranks and levels of responsibility. Moreover, with memories of the political crises of 1952 and 1954 still vivid, the Democrats also argue that even the possibility of a politico-military coup cannot be excluded.
The Democrats, however, appear to look chiefly to the United States to take action to prevent their worst fears from being realized, although several recent international developments appear to have raised some doubt in the minds of certain party leaders that the United States is prepared to intervene on the side of democratic government in Korea. At the same time, Democratic Party leaders appear to have given little thought to action which they might take, individually or as a party, to meet a situation which they insist imperils the future of democracy in Korea.
Despite the reservations which must be made in evaluating the Democratic assessment of the political situation in Korea and the prospects for 1960, their attitude seems to indicate a genuine fear that the present Administration is determined to prevent the transfer of political power to the Democrats through constitutional processes. Should the 1960 elections be dominated by governmental pressures and intimidation designed to deny the Opposition an opportunity to win majority support, it seems likely that this fear will harden into conviction. [Page 511] Whether, following such a defeat, the opposition political forces then adopted a program of extreme harassment and obstructionism or turned to even more desperate councils advocating a radical change in the form of government, the result could be more serious for the future of the two-party system and of democratic government system in Korea than the possible disintegration of the Democratic Party.
In terms of the U.S. policy objective of encouraging the long-run growth of democracy and the achievement of political stability, therefore, the character of the 1960 presidential elections in the Republic of Korea is likely to be more important than the specific outcome of that contest. For this reason, it will be in the U.S. interest to take all practical measures to insure that the election will be free, to the greatest extent possible, from unlawful interference.
[Here follow a 10-page analysis and the two memoranda of conversation noted in footnote 1; see Supplement.]
William G. Jones
First Secretary of Embassy
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 795B.00/12–158. Secret.↩
- Memoranda of October 1 and 24 conversations between Embassy officials and members of the Democratic Party concerning the Yongil “B” by-election and political prospects in Korea were attached. The Assembly election held in the Yongil “B” district on September 19 was viewed by the Democratic Party as a probable prototype of future efforts by the Liberal Party to disrupt opposition politics and control the 1960 Presidential election. See Supplement.↩