152. Telegram From the Embassy in Japan to the Department of State0

3227. CINCPAC exclusive for Adm Felt and POLAD. COMUS/Japan exclusive for Gen Burns. Embtel 3102,1 and Embtel 2947.2 I dined privately with Kishi last night. He expressed confidence that Diet would ratify security treaty during regular session and that extension of Diet would not be necessary. He believed all LDP factions with possible exception of Ishibashi would support security treaty when it came to vote in Diet. Ishibashi, who he said is “sick”, and possibly several of his followers might vote against treaty but this was inconsequential.

Referring to LDP factionalism he said situation has vastly improved in past few weeks and it no longer necessary to consider Diet dissolution. I commented I understood Yoshida, Ikeda and Sato were giving Kishi solid support. Kishi replied that support and help he is receiving from Yoshida has been of inestimable value and is largely responsible for improvement in factionalism within LDP. He said there are no problems between Yoshida, Ikeda, Sato and himself. I asked whether Yoshida, Ikeda and Sato were supporting him for third term. He replied that at present feeling among “responsible leaders” of LDP is that there is no one other than Kishi who could muster a majority for party presidency next autumn when presidency election takes place. He said that while Ikeda was a very good man it therefore seemed almost inevitable that he (Kishi) would be obliged to have a third term.

I asked when reshuffle of cabinet and top party posts would occur. Kishi said it would be inappropriate and create confusion to conduct reshuffle of cabinet and top party posts between termination of Diet end of May and arrival of President June 19. Therefore he would deal with problem of reshuffle following President’s trip with reorganization of cabinet and top party posts probably being consummated in July.

[Page 291]

Comment:Kishi reference to support he is receiving from Yoshida, Sato and Ikeda and fact there are no differences between them seems to substantiate information Tsutsumi gave me on March 25 (see reftel). There is no doubt that Yoshida has been key to substantial strengthening in Kishi’s position, for without Yoshida’s support for third term Kishi would not be able to count on Ikeda going along. Furthermore in addition to influence which Yoshida has over both Ikeda and Sato, Yoshida has been assiduously working on Ishii and indeed invited him together with Ikeda and Sato to his villa in Oiso to meet Chancellor Adenauer referring to these three as future Prime Ministers. Yoshida’s candidates for prime ministership following Kishi’s eventual retirement are Ikeda and Sato and his plans do not include Ishii. But by cultivating and flattering Ishii’s ambitions Yoshida doubtless hopes to align him with Kishi, Ikeda and Sato factions when chips go down on critical question of next president of LDP. Kishi’s decision to postpone cabinet and LDP reshuffle until after President’s visit doubtless reflects his feeling that President’s visit will strengthen his position.3

MacArthur
  1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, 794.00/4–660. Confidential; Limit Distribution. Repeated to CINCPAC and COMUS/Japan.
  2. In telegram 3102 from Tokyo, March 26, MacArthur reported on his conversation on March 25 with Yasujiro Tsutsumi, former Diet Speaker, LDP elder statesman, and strong financial backer of the mainstream faction. Recalling the discussions at a meeting last August with Yoshida, Kishi, Ikeda, and Sato, as well as recent assurances from the same, Tsutsumi said that Kishi’s prospects for a third term as president of LDP were good. (Ibid., 794.00/3–2660)
  3. In telegram 2947 from Tokyo, March 12, MacArthur recounted his private discussion with Kishi the previous night on LDP factionalism which, according to Kishi, was grossly distorted by the Japanese press. In concluding the conversation, Kishi said he remained confident that he could secure the passage of the treaty through the Diet. (Ibid., 794.2/3–1260)
  4. In airgram G–521 from Tokyo, April 13, the Embassy gave a detailed account of legislative maneuverings over the treaty, and concluded that the opposition parties, having failed so far to derail the treaty by “parliamentary fencing,” were trying to “infuse new life into campaign of popular demonstrations.” (Ibid., 794.00/4–660) In telegram 2588 to Tokyo, May 6, the Department expressed concern about continued delay in Diet action on the treaty, since Congress’ plans for early adjournment would affect Senate action, but recognized delays were dictated by Kishi’s “determination of best tactics assure Diet passage” (Ibid., 611.97/5–560) See Supplement for both.