ES–21. Telegram from the Acting Secretary of State to the Embassy in El Salvador1

109. For Ambassador from Mann. Would appreciate your analysis most recent developments Salvador in context following questions:

1)
Do you expect that Lemus regime will be able to survive present crises and in the event your opinion is in affirmative for how long?
  • In the event Lemus regime should fall would some kind of military junta be likely successor? If so, could we expect that such a regime would be basically friendly to West and hostile to Communism and Castroism? If not, what kind of regime would you expect to take over?
  • In reference to preceding questions would appreciate your views re current attitudes of a) military establishment, b) 14 families and their supporters, c) church, d) PRUD party, e) Osorio clique, f) labor, g) congress and h) university groups.

    Foregoing questions do not imply any change in U.S. position re support of constitutional government in Salvador. We are however increasingly concerned about ability of Lemus regime to survive and wish to begin thinking in concrete terms of what we would be faced with if government falls.

    Department is pushing ahead on plans for Central American Bank and is willing to consider any specific action in economic field that you consider vital to our interests in Salvador. However whether this type of assistance [Facsimile Page 2] would have any material influence on situation would seem to depend on length of time Lemus remains in power.

    Dillon
    1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, 716.00/9–1960. Secret; Limit Distribution; Priority. Drafted by Mann and signed by the Communications Watch Officer, John S. Whitt.