Foreign Relations of the United States, 1955–1957, East Asian Security; Cambodia; Laos, Volume XXI

328. National Intelligence Estimate¹

NIE 63.3/1–55

Washington, December 20, 1955.

PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN LAOS TO JULY 1956

The Problem

To estimate probable trends in relations between the Royal government and the Pathet Lao over the next six months with particular reference to the military intentions and capabilities of the two sides. (A discussion of the political, economic, and military situation in Laos is contained in NIE 63.3–55, dated 26 July 1955.² The present paper updates the basic discussion of Royal government-Pathet Lao capabilities, and the activities of the International Control Commission. Although the conclusions of NIE 63.3–55 remain valid in all important respects, this estimate provides further elaboration of its conclusions, particularly paragraph 6.)

Conclusions

1. The government of Laos is concerned that unless it soon suppresses the Pathet Lao a de facto partitioning of the country may occur. It is becoming increasingly impatient with a policy of inaction as a result of prolonged and fruitless negotiations with the Pathet Lao. However, the Royal government could probably be induced to postpone action for some time as a result of pressures from the Western Powers or the International Control Commission, and in the belief that Pathet Lao morale is declining. Its eventual course is likely to be influenced largely by its ability to obtain reliable air transport and by its estimates of the Viet Minh reaction and the prospects for U.S. or SEATO support. However, even lack of airlift or Western support may not deter the Royal government from launching an offensive. (Paras. 10, 23–24)

2. We believe that against Pathet forces alone, Royal government forces have the capability to contain Pathet attacks and, with adequate air transport, to occupy the main centers and lines of communication in the provinces of Sam Neua and Phong Saly. (Para. 17)

3. We believe that the Communists are determined to maintain their position in Sam Neua and Phong Saly provinces, and that Viet Minh troops will intervene to the extent necessary to maintain the Pathet Lao. Following the 25 December elections, which it is boycotting as illegal, the Pathet Lao may formalize its separate status by setting up a government in its areas of control. However, a serious Pathet Lao effort to drive the Royal troops out of Phong Saly and Sam Neua provinces appears inconsistent with general Communist policy in Asia, since it would require participation in combat areas of Viet Minh forces which would be susceptible to detection. Nevertheless, Pathet Lao-Viet Minh forces might undertake such action in view of the probable Communist estimate that military action limited to the two disputed provinces will not elicit effective Western reaction and might therefore demonstrate to the Thai and South Vietnamese that SEATO is an uncertain guarantee against Communist military pressure and subversion. (Paras. 16, 21)

4. We believe that, under the circumstances now existing, the most likely development will be a gradual build-up in the scale and intensity of hostilities in northern Laos over the next six months. There appears to be little likelihood of an effective cease-fire. Each side will attempt to consolidate and extend its position; but, barring unauthorized action by Royal Lao military commanders, neither side is likely to launch a large-scale offensive. There will probably be an increase in the size of the forces involved, including increased Viet Minh support of the Pathet Lao. In this situation there will be serious danger of sizeable Royal Lao forces being cut off and captured by more experienced Pathet-Viet Minh formations. The government might then feel compelled to request military assistance from SEATO or the US to maintain its position in the disputed provinces and to prevent a decline in anti-Pathet resolution through Laos. (Para. 27)

5. If increased military action led to a defeat for Royal government forces or their ejection from the disputed provinces, morale in the rest of Laos, particularly in government circles, would decline. The Thai might feel that failure to suppress the Pathet was due in part to indecision by the US; and, barring a US security commitment, concern over their own security would increase. South Vietnamese apprehensions would also increase, although Diem would feel that Communist violations of the Geneva Agreements would reduce foreign criticism of his refusal to discuss elections with the Viet Minh. India’s acquiescence in the de facto partitioning of Laos might be interpreted by the Communists as evidence that Nehru was unwilling to make an issue of gradual Communist advances in Southeast Asia. The Communists and some Southeast Asian governments would also tend to conclude that SEATO was not prepared to act. (Para. 28)

6. In the event of large-scale hostilities, the ICC would probably demand a cease-fire with a withdrawal of both sides to previously held positions. The question of which side initiated fighting must inevitably be hazy under circumstances prevailing in the area. The Indian ICC representatives will almost certainly insist that the status quo be preserved in the two provinces until the two sides are able to reach an agreed political settlement. The Indians remain sensitive to US involvement and would probably construe any US supply operations to Lao forces in the two provinces, under conditions of enlarged fighting, as violations of the Geneva Agreements. (Para. 29)

Discussion

[Here follows section I, “Current Situation.”]

II. Future Developments

20. The relative military weakness of the Pathet Lao and the probable reluctance of the Viet Minh to become engaged on such a scale as to risk SEATO or US intervention will probably serve to limit Communist military action to the disputed provinces of Laos. A continuation and expansion of local Pathet Lao attacks appears likely over the next few months. Such attacks might be designed to increase pressure for a resumption of negotiations, to raise the morale of their own forces, to counter the activities of government forces, or to underline Pathet Lao claims that the December election is illegal in the absence of a political settlement. Following the elections, which it is boycotting, the Pathet Lao may formalize its separate status by setting up a government in its areas of control. The Communists may also anticipate an eventual stiffening of the Western position in Laos and may desire to consolidate their own position before effective Western measures to bolster the Royal government can be implemented.

21. A serious Pathet Lao effort to drive the Royal troops out of Phong Saly and Sam Neua provinces appears inconsistent with general Communist policy in Asia, since it would require participation of Viet Minh forces in combat which would be susceptible to detection. However, Pathet Lao-Viet Minh forces might undertake such action in view of the probable Communist estimate that military action limited to the two northern provinces will not elicit effective Western reaction and might therefore demonstrate to the Thai and South Vietnamese that SEATO is an uncertain guarantee against Communist military pressure and subversion.

22. The failure of the Royal government to seize the opportunity offered by the recent Pathet Lao attack to undertake a general offensive indicates that no such action is contemplated at least until after the elections on 25 December. The outcome of these elections is uncertain, beyond the probability that few candidates subject to Pathet Lao influence will be elected. Following the election, problems of party alignments and personal position may occupy the attention of government leaders for a brief period. However, concern with the Pathet Lao problem is almost certain again to become paramount. Basic government policy towards the Pathet Lao is unlikely to be affected by the election, although a diminution in Premier Katay’s influence might result in a bolder policy.

23. If the Pathets do not launch an offensive, pressures from the Western Powers and the ICC plus the belief that Pathet Lao morale is declining, would probably induce the Laotian government to postpone action. We believe, however, that the Royal government will become increasingly impatient with a policy of inaction. Its eventual course of action is likely to be influenced largely by its ability to obtain reliable air transport from US or other sources, and its estimate both of Viet Minh reactions and of the likelihood of US, or SEATO support.

24. However, even lack of Western support or airlift may not deter the Royal government from launching an offensive. They might believe that Viet Minh intervention, if it occurred, would not extend beyond restoration of the Pathet position, and would have consequences no more serious than would a policy of inaction. They might hope that the Viet Minh could be forced to expose their role in the maintenance of the Pathet movement. In addition, they could claim that Pathet Lao action had grossly violated the Geneva Agreements. They could then request the Geneva co-chairmen to act to preserve the territorial integrity of Laos; and even call upon SEATO or the US for direct military assistance.

25. Finally, given the presence of opposing forces without a defined front in the disputed provinces and the inadequacy of communications, it is possible that an action intended as a reconnaissance or a relocation of forces could be interpreted by the other side as a deliberate provocation and thus lead to a wider conflict.

26. The admission of Laos to the UN is likely to have implications for the developing situation. The Lao government, at least in the short run, may feel somewhat safer in pursuing a bold policy, believing that its access to the UN as a forum (and one potentially affording support) would be important if the Viet Minh should intervene in response to government initiated military action. The Chinese Communists, and even the Viet Minh, may be less inclined to risk world censure through large-scale intervention on behalf of the Pathet Lao.

27. On balance, we believe that, in the circumstances now existing, there will be a gradual build-up in the scale and intensity of hostilities in northern Laos over the next six months. There appears to be little likelihood of an effective cease-fire. Each side will attempt to consolidate and extend its position; but, barring unauthorized action by Laos military commanders, neither side is likely to launch a large-scale offensive. There will probably be an increase in the size of the forces involved, including increased Viet Minh support of the Pathet Lao. In this case, almost as much as in that described in paragraph 18, there would be serious danger of sizeable Lao forces being cut off and captured by more experienced Pathet-Viet Minh formations. The government might then feel compelled to request military assistance from SEATO or the US to maintain its position in the disputed provinces and to prevent a decline in anti-Pathet resolution throughout Laos.

28. If increased military action led to a defeat for Royal government forces or their ejection from the disputed provinces, morale in the rest of Laos, particularly in government circles, would decline. The Thai might feel that failure to suppress the Pathet was due in part to indecision by the US; and, barring a US security commitment, concern over their own security would increase. South Vietnamese apprehensions would also increase, although Diem would feel that Communist violations of the Geneva Agreements would reduce foreign criticism of his refusal to discuss elections with the Viet Minh. India’s acquiescence in the de facto partitioning of Laos might be interpreted by the Communists as evidence that Nehru was unwilling to make an issue of gradual Communist advances in Southeast Asia. The Communists and some Southeast Asian governments would also tend to conclude that SEATO was not prepared to act.

29. In the event of large-scale hostilities, the ICC would probably demand a cease-fire with a withdrawal of both sides to previously held positions. The question of which side initiated fighting must inevitably be hazy under circumstances prevailing in the area. The Indian ICC representatives will almost certainly insist that the status quo be preserved in the two provinces until the two sides are able to reach an agreed political settlement. The Indians remain sensitive to US involvement and would probably construe any US supply operations to Lao forces in the two provinces, under conditions of enlarged fighting, as violations of the Geneva Agreements.

1. Source: Department of State, INR–NIE Files. Secret. According to a note on the cover sheet, the following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: CIA, intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff. All members of the IAC concurred with this estimate on December 20 with the exception of the AEC and the FBI who abstained on the grounds that the subject was outside their jurisdiction.
2. Document 306; a note on the source text indicates that this NIE supplemented NIE 63.3–55. According to a letter from Armstrong to Allen Dulles, December 7, the Department of State believed that “the rapidly developing situation in Laos” required updating NIE 63.3–55. The Department requested this estimate on an emergency basis. (Department of State, INR Files: Lot 61 D 67, NIE TS)