234. Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Anderson) to the President1
SUBJECT
- Oil Production in Mexico
At yesterday’s Council meeting, I was astonished to learn that someone had given you an estimate that oil production in the Republic of Mexico could be increased by a million barrels a day—presumably within a period of time that would have a bearing upon the Middle East crisis. From some knowledge of the subject, I felt certain that these figures were so far out of line as to be almost ridiculous, and I mentioned this fact to Arthur Flemming after the meeting. I told him I believed we could obtain an accurate estimate on the subject very promptly from DeGolyer, an outstanding world authority on oil reserves, with a unique knowledge about Mexican reserves and production potentials. He asked me to call DeGolyer and get his views, which I did. The facts according to DeGolyer are:
- (1)
- The total present production in Mexico is around 250,000 barrels per day.
- (2)
- Existing wells wide open would probably not produce more than an additional return of 250,000 barrels per day at the outside.
- (3)
- The more probable limit on the increase now possible would be an additional 100,000 barrels, and this for only a short period of time.
- (4)
- There are no known undeveloped fields which even with additional drilling show promise of more than doubling Mexico’s present potential, and this would take years.2