751G.00/4–2254: Telegram
The Chargé at Saigon (McClintock) to the Department of State
niact
2078. Sent Paris niact 702. I saw DeJean this morning. He had spent yesterday afternoon with General Navarre who told him that as a matter of military mathematics, Dien Bien Phu would be lost.
General Navarre told DeJean that desperate recourse to relief column from Muong Say was not feasible because of lack of air power. He could at a maximum find nine battalions for such an effort, but for lack of adequate “infrastructure” (airfields and communication system) and pilot personnel it was not possible to utilize all the aircraft which US has now provided.
At Dien Bien Phu, the situation grows daily more critical. Not only is central redoubt and air strip under direct heavy artillery fire, but enemy system of entrenchments grows ever more tight around defense perimeter, which now is only 1½ kilometers in diameter. This steadily dwindling drop zone makes task of parachuting supplies increasingly difficult. In consequence, Navarre’s estimate is that Dien Bien Phu will fall by what he terms “asphyxiation”. It seems probable that battle will be over within week or ten days at present rate of deterioration.
DeJean said in General Cogny’s estimate General Giap could prepare an onslaught on Tonkin Delta within ten days after fall of Dien Bien Phu. Military situation there, already precarious, could thus easily become critical.