751G.5/4–552: Telegram
The Minister at Saigon (Heath) to the Department of State
1948. Leg refers to NIE-35/11 just received. I desire to record that my opinion and the majority of our qualified observers here, including Gen Brink, that the estimate is slightly over-pessimistic. We do not believe that thru mid-1952 the probable outlook in IC is one of gradual deterioration of the Franco-Viets milit position. We believe that the Franco-Viets forces will maintain and possibly slightly improve their present position against the VM. The British Min here tells me that is their estimate also. We doubt the VM will make “some territorial gains” by mid-year. Pls note that above estimate extends only to first half of 1952, period which is already half over and is also based on the by no means firm supposition that Chinese will not invade in force during next three months.
I wld not at this date venture to make predictions respecting milit situation during second half 1952.