751J.5/5–953: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Dillon) to the Secretary of State
5878. Repeated information Saigon 252; London, Moscow unnumbered. Apparent withdrawal toward north majority Viet Minh Forces in Laos has aroused considerable speculation here re reasons therefor as well as motives behind original movement into Laos.1
Most logical of reasons advanced for sudden Viet Minh reversal and cessation activity is that Viet Minh had outrun their line supply and that lengthened lines communications in sparsely settled country had left them in difficulty re food as well as military supplies. Confronted with strong French force at Luang Prabang and Plaine des Jarres, where Viet Minh could not launch sustained attack or face heavier French fire, Viet Minh decided withdraw in belief they had been successful on several counts. Viet Minh had created uncertainty in Associated States re French ability hold on, thus strengthening tendency attentism and creating psychological climate favorable to [Page 560] Viet Minh. French had been compelled fly in troops and supplies which could have been advantageously used in Tonkin and in so doing may have immobilized sizable number troops in strong defensive positions while Viet Minh left to move at will and still in possession of initiative. French Government will probably face severe questioning in National Assembly as result Laos reverses and difficulties with Cambodians which were probably heightened by Viet Minh move into Laos and resultant fears created in Cambodia. As result invasion Viet Minh have been able set up “free Laotian Government” and are in position organize Laotians for future action. When rainy season ends, attack will resume from base consolidated and strengthened in meantime.
Another thesis is that Soviets have had their peace offensive so effectively blunted, at least in France, that they decided call halt to offensive and order withdrawal for time being. Soviet radio and press comment approving Viet Minh action as liberation move tends argue against this explanation. At same time Viet Minh withdrawal does remove this “stain” on Soviet peace offensive and might be expected ease pressures toward appealing case to UN.
Whatever may be reasons for easing military situation Laos, this new development should make task French Government meeting criticism in Assembly somewhat easier than would have been case had Viet Minh advance continued.
- In telegram 58 from Vientiane, May 9, Chargé Thomson reported that French authorities believed that the Viet Minh campaign in Laos was over for the season, presumably due to Viet Minh fatigue and supply difficulties, and the early onset of the rainy season. Thomson cautioned, however, that it was premature to conclude that the Viet Minh would not seek further gains during the present campaign. He further warned that northern Laos would henceforth be a trouble area to be watched constantly. (751J.5/5–953)↩