792.00/11–3051: Telegram

The Chargé in Thailand ( Turner ) to the Secretary of State

confidential

1233. Insufficient info yet offer firm analysis Nov 29 coup. Fol based solely on preliminary observations.

1. Causes. Coup apparently motivated by desire 1947 Coup Party curtail powder of King. Gen Phao’s two recent missions to King in Lausanne failed as King reportedly castigated whole govt. Coup Party desired also abolish April 1948 constitution which gave King great power, e.g., unlimited power appoint 100 Senators. Essential take action before King returned Dec 2. Furthermore Coup Party long resented fact that though it put present govt in power and controls most mil force it largely excluded from power in Parliament and civil admin.

2. Probable immed results. Coup Party now supreme politically as well as militarily. Phibun appears correspondingly weaker having lost Navy last June and now losing Parliament. Split between Sarit and Phao temporarily healed, but with Coup Party now in complete power split likely reappear.

3. Legal position now. Regent refused sign proclamation substituting 1932 constitution for 1948 constitution; therefore legality new Cabinet under Phibun in question. FonMin told me new Cabinet is de facto govt but in our view nine-man mil Junta may hold ultimate control. Previous Parliament wiped out. Coup Party published in police newspaper list 123 nominees to new Parliament consisting of virtually entire 1947 Coup Party and 19 members 1932 Coup Party. Appointments not made owing to uncertain legal position new govt. Regent and one source close to PriMin mentioned fear King might abdicate.

4. Coup Party attempting create impression new govt a union of 1947 and 1932 groups. At present this appears to be false and admission [Page 1640] 1932 leaders to govt depends on Phibun’s ability re-establish control. FonMin told me Coup designed strengthen govt against Commies. This likely be govt’s line toward foreign countries.

5. Opposition views. First reports suggest Democrat pro-Royalists will lose what little power they have. Some former Pridi-ites expressed hope Phibun will reassert this power. One Pridi-ite predicted 1947 Coup Party will be ousted by Phibun and 1932 leaders before next elections estimated for March.

6. Foreign relations. Govt announced Coup purely internal and foreign policy will remain unchanged. Probably true inasmuch as mil leaders desire foreign recognition and continuance US aid. First impression new govt under Coup party less stable than previous, however, necessary not to underestimate Phibun’s polit acumen.

7. We shall continue to observe and report on developments as situation clarifies.

Turner