794A.00/4–1750
Memorandum by the Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs (Rusk) to the Secretary of State 1
Subject: CIA Reappraisal of Formosa
Reference is made to Mr. Butterworth’s2 memorandum of March 27 (Tab A)3 bringing to your attention the CIA intelligence estimate (ORE 7–50 published March 20, 1950)3 of probable developments in Taiwan. This estimate covered information received prior to February 20 and concluded, with the intelligence agencies of the Department of State concurring and those of the Department of Defense dissenting, that the Chinese Communists “are estimated to possess the capability of carrying out their frequently expressed intention of seizing Taiwan during 1950, and will probably do so during the period June–December.”
There is attached hereto a memorandum from CIA dated April 10 (Tab B)3 informally reviewing the intelligence estimate referred to above in the light of information received since February 20, 1950. This informal reappraisal generally reaffirms the earlier estimate (a) that no Nationalist regime will effect political and military adjustments sufficient to defend the island successfully against a combination of internal and external threats, and (b) that the Chinese Communists are capable of seizing Taiwan before the end of 1950, and will probably do so. However, it points out that more recent information indicating “an improved situation for the Nationalists somewhat weakens the assurance with which the timing of future events can be forecast.” In the latter connection, the memorandum concludes: “The fall of Taiwan, before the end of 1950, still seems the most likely course of future developments, but the possibility of a somewhat longer survival of the Nationalist regime on that island should not be excluded.”