893.00/7–2749: Telegram

The Minister-Counselor of Embassy in China (Clark) to the Secretary of State

Cantel 830. All information leads to belief Communists will encounter no real resistance in attacks toward Canton, TelCan 496, July 26. Pai Chung-hsi is short ammunition, is conserving it, and am convinced he will not put up real fight until mountains Kwangsi. Remaining troops between Communists and Canton have poor morale and leadership. Much defection, little fighting expected. Canton being reinforced by former Tsingtao garrison of ill-repute via Hainan. They expected defeat.

Best estimate Communist capabilities is they can take Canton 10 days. Our guess is mid-August.

Foreign Office admits that in light military developments Szechuan, government reviewing decision remove capital Chungking. Chu Chang-wei rules out Kweilin or Kweiyang as alternative seat government.

Clark