883.00/1–749: Airgram
The Chargé in the United Kingdom (Holmes) to the Secretary of State
Subject: Revolution in Egypt
A–29. Following for US eyes only. In a private and personal conversation recently a responsible official of the British Foreign Office, who deals directly with Egyptian affairs, remarked to an officer of this Embassy in a mood of deep gloom that “from the way things are going from bad to worse in Egypt it seems to me that a revolution there is inevitable.”
Expanding this thought, the official said that the economic and social problems of Egypt, which were already bad, had been aggravated by the war in Palestine and that instead of Egyptian leaders endeavoring to take remedial steps they seem to be vying with one another to scramble to the top of the manure pile out of reach of the rising sea of discontent, hunger and despair. He opined that the only untried force, which conceivably might be for the good, would be enlightened intervention by Farouk1 but this young man appears to share the outlook of the reactionary landowners and other vested interests. In the present circumstances the official could foresee only a struggle between the “haves” and the “have-nots”, the plight of the latter in Egypt being far worse than in most Arab countries owing to population pressure and land shortage. The official did not know how long the patient “have-not donkey” would support the heavy burden of the unenlightened “haves” but he “imagined that it would kick before long”.
The official said that if a revolution should occur in Egypt it might be just as well that the Wafd is not in the present government because there would be “someone to take over”. He presumed the King would go (“possibly feet first”) and Nahas2 would move in.
Asked re the character of such a revolution the official said it would probably be “typically Egyptian” starting with more assassinations, looting and mob violence but at no time involving very considered or very widely held political objectives. The latter would emerge from the men who “took over” the revolution and turned it to their own purposes.
The official felt personally that the future prospects for Egypt are “grim”.