501.BC Kashmir/10–1249: Telegram
The Chargé in India (Donovan) to the Secretary of State
priority
1227. 1. UK office showed US privately several days ago copy lengthy mail instruction sent British Embassy Washington re Kashmir. This instruction appears to have been written with knowledge of procedure recommended Kascom 1121 but not 116.2 We assume views contained therein already discussed with Department.
2. We concur emphatically with British that GOI is searching for new basis settlement which would permit departure from terms SC and UNCIP resolutions and that it is thinking of following possibilities: (a) partition; (b) single mediator other than the plebiscite [Page 1749] administrator; and (c) over-all arbitration of major issues between Pakistan and India.
3. We also agree with underlying thought arbitration technique which was accepted by Pakistan and not excluded by GOI and which was urged by President and Attlee should not be summarily abandoned. If GOI is able to reject without further disadvantage to itself so reasonable a proposal as that which UNCIP advanced and President, Attlee supported it may result in tendency GOI consider it can afford disregard views expressed to it by us on other matters.
4. As indicated in Embtel 11503 September 27 we are by no means satisfied, however, that all efforts should continue to be directed to goal of eventual plebiscite even though it be assumed GOP would not now accept any other solution. Here in Delhi very few indeed believe there ever will be a plebiscite under UN auspices in Kashmir. In Srinagar, where a crude and damaging campaign against UNCIP has been in progress, opinion is even more emphatic on this point. It is clear Sheikh Abdullah will go to great length avoid UN plebiscite and that he has enormous influence on Nehru regarding Kashmir. In view foregoing we repeat view expressed in reftel that if GOI is to be brought to plebiscite on any but its own terms much greater pressure will have to be exerted through SC or otherwise.
5. If renewed efforts in SC fail to make progress towards settlement on basis UNCIP resolution problem of how to shift efforts to a new basis of settlement would become urgent. One possibility which has emerged in informal talk with British here would be for UN representative, perhaps Nimitz, come to Subcontinent as fact-finder and report back to SC. If he found conditions Kashmir and attitudes two governments such that plebiscite would not be held or if held might not provide lasting solution SC could then turn to other methods.
6. Foregoing does not mean Embassy not in sympathy with another effort to bring about demilitarization of state by arbitration and achievement truce agreement. On contrary, we feel because of considerations mentioned paragraph 3 US should support this despite slim prospects success and that if it fails record should clearly show who responsible for failure. But we do feel strongly way should be left open for broader application arbitration technique or for shift to different method of settlement.
Sent Department 1227, pouched Karachi, Department pass London, Geneva from Delhi,