840.20/1–2649: Telegram
The Ambassador in Denmark (Marvel) to the Secretary of State
57. Canvass of Scandinavian situation as it appears in Copenhagen indicates efforts now will be made to delay clear cut decision and to prolong Scandinavian discussions long after February 1. In light of US policy expressed Deptel 18, January 14,1 which I agree is as far as US Congress will go, consequences of delay in Scandinavian decision must be appraised.
If decision is not concluded at Oslo I can see two detrimental results affecting us:
- (1)
- During period of delay Stockholm, mecca of Scandinavian Socialists, will use every string to influence fellow party members in Norway and Denmark to traditional Socialistic neutral point of view. Longer Swedish Socialists have to exert such efforts more converts they will obtain.
- (2)
- Delay may bring about Scandinavian defense agreement conditioned upon terms at variance with and unacceptable to US policy. This proposal will be dumped on Washington’s doorstep and upon its not receiving US blessing, cry “US has split Scandinavia” will be taken up by Communists and echoed by some Socialists, the number of which will be determined by length of time delay has been permitted to endure.
To prevent growth of theme now harmful developments, only cure appears to be to torpedo Oslo conference by bringing pressure to bear on Norway to withdraw therefrom and seek immediately invitation to North Atlantic pact. On two occasions during Copenhagen conference Norwegians threatened to walk out and while Swedish rumors to effect Norwegian Labor Party members were withdrawing support to adherence to Atlantic pact were rampant during Copenhagen conference, it may be Norwegians with appropriate push would take definite stand this week-end and collapse conference. While blame on US would be voiced it would not be as powerful as that if final decision made in Washington. Once this step is taken after short period of mourning and no offer of tangible help from Sweden, Denmark in my opinion would likewise seek invitation to Atlantic pact. Unless some such drastic step is taken I believe Swedes together with Danish acquiescence will attempt to drag on negotiations for long time.
Sent Department 57; repeated Stockholm 10, Oslo 10.