840.20/1–1249: Telegram
The Ambassador in Denmark (Marvel) to the Acting Secretary of State
27. Formula agreed upon by Nordic leaders at Karlstad is in line with Danish insistence in exhausting all approaches to maintain Scandinavian [Page 21] solidarity. One of basic elements and condition of formula is success in persuading US to supply arms to three Nordic countries. Danish argument will be US is considering inviting Norway and Denmark to joint North Atlantic pact with knowledge supplying of arms is necessary. Therefore these arms must now be in process of being made available and consequently since available should be offered to Danes on reasonable terms even though Denmark not member of pact. Further argument will be advanced it is to US advantage to have neutral Scandinavian block backed up by power of Sweden which will tend to deter Russian aggression in this area while on other hand by Norway and Denmark joining North Atlantic pact thus splitting Scandinavia Russian aggression would be invited by knowledge Sweden would not come to Denmark’s and Norway’s assistance and US and UK help would be too late.
I assume that the first reaction of Department will be to insist on policy stated Department’s 720, November 22,1 namely, such neutral arrangement disqualifies members from getting US aid until requirements member of North Atlantic pact have been met. However, on reflection and in consideration Karlstad formula is based on assumption only Russia can be considered potential aggressor, I believe problem should be reconsidered in view Karlstad developments. Result of US policy had forced Sweden to commit itself to war in case Norway or Denmark attacked. Sweden has been forced into this position by fear resulting from US policy that Denmark and Norway would join North Atlantic pact leaving Sweden alone. This committing of Sweden to defend the two militarily weak Scandinavian countries cannot help being a deterring factor to Russian aggression. I believe Karlstad formula is only way to commit Sweden, the most powerful Scandinavian country, to war on Russia other than by direct attack on Swedish territory as I am convinced Sweden will not join North Atlantic pact. In this respect US and North Atlantic members are relieved of obligation to defend indefensible Denmark and at same time are assured of Swedish participation in war against Russia in event Denmark is attacked.
There are two important and related problems, namely, Greenland to US and Faroe Islands to UK. Karlstad formula applies only to metropolitan areas and not to these island possessions. It is possible in my opinion to reach understanding with Danes that defense of these islands will follow lines last war, namely, UK will occupy Faroes and US Greenland. When I questioned Rasmussen as to Greenland he replied “we already have a treaty with your country and we have no desire to disturb the situation”. Certainly with the supply of a small [Page 22] number of arms at reasonable terms which would be much less in number and value Danes would expect as member North Atlantic pact, I am of opinion Danes would continue indefinitely with understanding heretofore given me that Denmark would take no steps to terminate present Greenland treaty so long as crisis exists.
By political pressure Danes and presumably Norwegians can be brought into North Atlantic pact. Question is does mere fact of additional members of North Atlantic pact group openly united against Russia outweigh factors of not having weak Norway and Denmark to defend plus assurance of Swedish participation against Russia for if war comes Denmark will be one of first attacked.
I am convinced Karlstad formula should be calmly and objectively considered and I offer my above views in connection therewith.
Sent Department 27; repeated Oslo 4, Stockholm 3, London 4.
- Repetition to Copenhagen of telegram No. 812 to Stockholm, November 22, 1948, Foreign Relations, 1948, vol. iii, p. 281.↩