860H.00/9–2748: Telegram
The Chargé in Yugoslavia (Reams) to the Secretary of State
1303. This Embassy unable completely evaluate effect of Tito’s defection upon Kremlin’s willingness to enter into conflict although considers makes less likely. Embassy agrees it is probable that Yugoslavia would, in the event of hostilities, enter war on Soviet side. However, as breach widens, every day that passes lessens this probability. (Moscow’s 2141 to Department.) If Tito enters war on Soviet side, he must realize that he will be finished in long run regardless of where victory lies.
On assumption that early hostilities possible, even though unlikely, Embassy believes it should be instructed by Department concerning course of action to be followed vis-à-vis Yugoslav Government. First factor to be considered is desirability from overall point of view of Yugoslav neutrality. Embassy realizes it is not competent to pass upon all factors involved. However, certain facts are obvious. Yugoslav neutrality would have considerable effect upon completeness of support accorded by satellites to Soviets. It would decrease pressure on areas vital to West, such as Trieste and Greece. It would possibly lead to Soviet attack on Yugoslavia, which could be to our interest. Neutrality might be expected become more and more benevolent as our strength grew. Parallel with Spain during last war obvious.
On assumption neutrality desirable, following questions must be determined: Should action taken by US be confined threats; should we promise continue not interfere Yugoslav affairs in future; or should we offer something more. Something more could be assistance against Soviet attack, or assurance that we would not interfere with development Balkan Federation. Anything more than statement to the effect that Yugoslavia’s own best interests would be served by neutrality carries dangerous implications which could only be justified by considerations of overall strategic policy.
[Page 1112]Foregoing prepared in consultation Military Attaché and Naval Attaché.
Please pass Defense.