811.42700 (R)/12–2748: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kohler) to the Secretary of State
3030. If not already done, recommend VOA exploit to maximum Soviet uncertainty about Western economic stability evidenced by fact Varga not liquidated and by continuing Soviet press discussion his position (Embtel 2850 December 8 [6] and Embdesp 833 December 91). As background suggest cite Stalin’s doctrine that revolutionary movement alternates between ebb and flow, his long-proclaimed expectation of high tide in connection with World War II by analogy to tide which produced October revolution and subsequent period revolutionary ferment, and his announcement stabilization of capitalism 1925. Stalin’s theory plus obvious uncertainty Soviet economic-theoreticians indicate Stalin probably expects new capitalist stabilization eventually, and current Soviet tactics are effort to make most of Western post-war troubles while they last. Significant that Stalin [Page 948] himself has not made any post-war pronouncement that would upspeed Varga controversy. When West sufficiently demonstrates strength and stability, Stalin likely to announce new stabilization capitalism and change Soviet tactics (but not strategic objectives) accordingly.
Suggest VOA treatment for non-Curtain countries present foregoing as added incentive redouble effort for economic recovery and willingness necessary cooperation political and other fields, on ground that tangible recovery and consolidation in West is best means easing tension with USSR. Treatment for Curtain countries should be factual rather than exhortatory, taking wind out of Communist sails by anticipating next zigzag Stalinist dialection and revealing present uncertainties in high command.
- Latter not printed. The Embassy commented in this despatch about the continuation of the criticism of Varga and his followers for their “unpartylike non-Bolshevist attitude” and for persisting in their economic heresies without recanting previous errors, but instead adding new one (800.50/12–948).↩