861.50/11–1548: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kohler) to the Secretary of State
2649. Predictions as to likely consequences of Sochi conferences, particularly as concerns economic possibilities appears so far limited to forecasts some observers of more closely integrated economic planning development and cooperation USSR and orbit countries plus possible institution eastern Europe customs union. The Embassy has for some time, however, been thinking along the lines of even more extensive program and searching for indications which might presage planned inauguration some form of “ruble area” with satellite monetary and banking systems brought into more direct relationship and dependence operations State bank USSR.
[Page 934]In view general speed-up Soviet timetable, turn of New Year not considered here a premature date for possible move this scale as next step in satellite consolidation and suitable Soviet answer to ERP. Although firm evidence inexistent, current Moscow visit R. Dombovski, heading Polish finance delegation may be cited while steady pressure and almost psychopathic concern Soviet Government this year toward stabilization and enhancement ruble’s value and present undoubtedly firm USSR gold position offer indirect support.
We should expect additional prior indications by way of price readjustments, perceptible international monetary movements and rumors of pending monetary reforms affecting orbit countries to signal consummation development programs such proportions. However serious study, planning and policy development beyond competence Embassy obviously would precede such developments and we suggest it is not too early for Department to undertake.