865.00B/12–246
Memorandum by the Deputy Director of the Office of European Affairs (Hickerson)99
As you know, the recent municipal elections in Italy showed impressive gains by the Communists at the expense of the moderate Christian Democrats. These gains reflect the success of constant Communist attacks against De Gasperi and the Western powers. As we see it, the Communist strategy is to discredit De Gasperi and thus force his resignation as Premier; to form a new government more to the left; and then to hold national elections which would be expected to return the Communists as the strongest party with a firm grip on any government then formed.
To achieve all this, the Communists need a few more “failures” by De Gasperi. His “failure” to obtain support from the Western powers in the treaty negotiations has been the theme thus far, but a good domestic issue is now needed. Growing unemployment as raw materials from UNRRA taper off will help, but the wheat crisis is an immediate and more effective issue. If additional wheat cannot be shipped soon, and a reduction in the bread ration thereby averted, the Communists can be expected to make full use of another De Gasperi “failure”, and I doubt if he could continue as Premier much longer.
I know that we are already working to obtain additional wheat for the Italians; I know too that there are tremendous practical obstacles in the way of meeting their desires in full. Yet, I feel we must keep in mind that a first-class political crisis is building up in Italy, and therefore use every possible means to increase the grain shipments. Wheat will not solve our problem there, but the lack of it may.1