740.0011 P. W./81: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Leahy) to the Secretary of State
[Received 6:25 p.m.]
174. Chauvel read us yesterday several telegrams on the Far East. One from Tokyo dated February 6 reported that the so-called “southern party” (apparently the elements in Japan favoring a move toward the south rather than against Russia) was rapidly gaining the ascendency. Arsène-Henry is convinced that the Germans have now reached some secret agreement with the Japanese in which the latter in return for some unknown territorial promises from [Page 65] Germany—perhaps Indochina, perhaps the Dutch East Indies—are preparing some move towards the south to coincide with Germany’s early attack against England.
The Japanese, he reported, have definite information that the British will do nothing if the Japanese move in the direction of Cochin-China or Camranh Bay, but will merely prepare their defences against a further Japanese advance southwards. Henry suspected that this information, as well as the previous Japanese reports that [of?] British offers of mediation in the Thailand-Indochina dispute were derived through the breaking of British codes. The Japanese, he reported, are also convinced that we will make no move unless Singapore or the Dutch East Indies are directly threatened. On the other hand, the Japanese press is now refraining from any adverse criticism of Russia or Russian policy.
From Bangkok Chauvel had a telegram indicating anxiety lest the Japanese as the price of their “mediation” would demand naval bases in Thailand—anxiety which the French Chargé d’Affaires stated was shared by the American and British Ministers. A further telegram from Bangkok via Hanoi indicated an increase in the number of Japanese officers in the southern provinces of Thailand and a general strengthening of Thai forces in that area. There had likewise been a minor border incident on the Malay frontier.
Finally from Moscow the French Ambassador86 reported an improvement in Russo-Japanese relations. The Russians, said Labonne, now talk of a willingness to read [reach] a permanent settlement of the fisheries question which they have been unwilling to consider for the past 20 years. They are also indicating that there are possibilities of reaching a general accord with the Japanese. On the other hand, they are now making several complaints against Chiang Kai-shek arising out of his difficulties with the Fourth Army Corps (Communist). Chauvel interpreted the foregoing as a clear indication that the Russians are for the moment attempting to lull the Japanese into a sense of security in the north to encourage them to turn their attention either toward Singapore or the Dutch East Indies. What tactics the Russians would pursue once the Japanese became entangled in the south, said Chauvel, was another matter.
All the foregoing, Chauvel continued, convinced him that the Japanese are definitely getting ready to embark on a new operation in the south in the near future; that they have reached some agreement with the Germans designed to keep us occupied in the Far East and cause further difficulties for the British at the time when the Germans launch their expected attack on England. A further sign confirming this was a complete absence at present of German inquiries at Wiesbaden [Page 66] with respect to the situation in Indochina in contrast to the rather “sympathetic” attitude which the Germans had displayed toward French problems in that area until recently.
In conclusion he said: “I felt until quite recently that Japanese maneuvers in your regard were largely bluff. I am now convinced that this is not the case.”
- Eirik Labonne.↩