740.0011 P. W./116
The British Embassy to the Department of State
Aide-Mémoire
Evidence is accumulating that the Japanese may already have decided to push on Southward even if this means war. Press reports indicate that Japan is using her position as mediator between Thailand and Indo China to gain, besides a preferential economic position, a Naval Base at Camranh Bay, Air Bases in Southern Indo China [Page 62] and control of the Indo China customs. There is also reason to suppose that some military agreement with Thailand, directed against our territories and the Netherlands East Indies is under consideration.
The following are a few “straws in the wind”:
- (a)
- His Majesty’s Ambassador in Tokyo reports a general feeling amongst the Japanese that a crisis in the Far East will come within the next few weeks.
- (b)
- Cancellation of sailings of Japanese ships to the United States and the commandeering of ships by the Japanese Government have been reported. These reports have not so far been confirmed by the British Naval authorities in Singapore.
- (c)
- Japan is continuing to supply munitions to Thailand. For instance, a Japanese steamer arrived at Bangkok on January 29th with the following war material for the Thai Government: 8,000 bombs, 20 tanks and 10,000 cases containing unspecified arms and ammunition.
- (d)
- A telephone conversation was intercepted between two Japanese at Sourabaya and Lawang to the effect that the Japanese attack would take place on February 10th. The Netherlands authorities attach no undue importance to the conversation but think that it cannot be disregarded.
- (e)
- A Japanese Naval Officer recently stated to students of the Malay languages that time was very short indeed.
- (f)
- The time-table of the “Asaka Maru” which is taking a Naval Mission to Berlin and may be bringing back machinery and certain metals, seems to indicate that action is not contemplated until the middle of March.
- (g)
- A French source in Indo China reports concentrations in Formosa and Hainan.
While none of these indications may be conclusive in themselves their accumulative effect is to suggest that a further movement is impending. Most of this information has already been given to the United States Naval Attaché in London.