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Memorandum by the Chief of the Division of European Affairs (Moffat)
The Italian Ambassador called this morning on his return from leave. He said he found conditions in Europe much more normal than one would gather from the American Press, which constantly dramatizes the threat of war. As a matter of fact, although Spain is a source [Page 406] of concern, nobody wants to fight over Spain, neither Italy, nor Germany, nor France, nor Russia. He reiterated that Italy’s sole interest in Spain was to keep Bolshevism away from the Mediterranean and that any reports that she wanted to keep the Balearic Islands or gain a foothold on the Peninsula were inaccurate and misleading. He said that although the attitude of the French Government had been correct an immense commerce in arms, munitions and airplanes had been going on between Valencia and France. At the outbreak of the hostilities Valencia had only one hundred planes. To date four hundred Loyalist planes have been shot down and they still have a large number actually flying. All these have been brought in from abroad.
Italy, however, was pretty well satisfied that Franco was now winning. He thought it would take another few weeks to finish the northern campaign, capture Gijon and clear up the Oviedo region. After that Franco would have about 100,000 fresh troops to throw into the line either at Madrid or near Valencia, and Italy was calculating that this would suffice to end Loyalist resistance.