834.00/814: Telegram
The Minister in Paraguay (Howard) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 15—noon.]
46. My 45, March 13, 9 p.m. It continues to be difficult to gauge the consequence of the recent “revolution—state” decree. It appears certainly to have effected the suppression of the extremists and of the renascent Republican Party, which has addressed to Colonel Franco a communication “in the desire to avoid great and irreparable evils” urging that the decree be revoked. Assurances are said to have been given by Franco to the ex-combatants, workers, and students that the restrictions of the decree do not apply to them and despite evidence of some discontent (the extent of which is not known) it is probable that as announced by the students they continue to support the new regime.
The position of the Franco government would accordingly appear to be as follows: in hostile alignment against it are the Liberal Party (disorganized but powerful and dangerous) and the Republican Party (also disorganized, but strong), which combined constitute almost the entirety of the Paraguayan electorate; and the Communists (presumably negligible in numbers but troublesome by virtue [Page 891] of their methods). In support are the army (not all of whose numbers were voluntary participants in the insurrection and which is persistently reported to be divided and restless); the ex-combatants (which there is reason to believe is a less cohesive group than seems to be believed); the workers (who despite strenuous organizing activities during the last few weeks probably are not a compact group and as in the case of the ex-combatants may have in their ranks many who still would heed old party influences); the students (who while vocal are believed not to possess physical strength). It does not seem likely that this material could be welded by a decree into a state party capable of sustaining the Franco regime, although a judgment on this score might be premature. In any event pending the outcome of the experiment it would appear to be certain that the new Government must be based primarily upon the army and that its policies must be shaped accordingly.