800.6176/18: Telegram (part air)

The Chargé in the Netherlands (Wilson) to the Secretary of State

36. Department’s telegram 26, September 16th, 6 p.m. Colonel Townsend and de Krafft are still in London and according to Baron Van Lynden of the United States Rubber Company they may not come to The Hague before the meeting of the International Committee on September 29th. If they should do so I have arranged for them to talk with Van Gelderen, rubber expert of the Ministry of Colonies, Bolderhey, chief Netherlands member of the Rubber Committee, and Premier Colijn if necessary.

In the meantime have obtained the following information: Netherlands members of the International Committee will not insist on a reduction in percentage of restriction at this time. Premier Colijn does not believe that there is any danger at the present, his opinion being based on the official figures which do not at all correspond with those quoted by the Department They are as follows: world stocks on June 1st (including afloat) 499,000 tons, exports June to December 530,000 tons, consumption June to December 570,000 tons, excess consumption 40,000 tons, world stock on December 31st, 1936, estimated approximately 459,000 tons.

They admit that if world rubber stocks were only 300,000 tons there would be real danger of excessive prices; they also admit that the year 1937 will present a more difficult problem in the control of prices since their own native rubber restriction export tax is to be abandoned for a system of individual native restriction on January 1st and it will follow that there will be less native rubber and it will bring a higher price. For this reason a reduction in the percentage of restriction of from 5 to 10 percent is considered a possibility or even a probability for next year. The Dutch official members of Committee would like to see more rubber released now but consider that British opposition would be too insistent.

In view of foregoing does the Department wish me to take any action before the meeting of the Rubber Committee? I am fairly certain that their plans cannot be altered at this time. Does not Department agree that, in view of Premier Colijn’s repeated assurances and the fact that [after?] 2 years of restriction the price of rubber remains stable and satisfactory, we should defer our protests or inquiries until later when the situation will contain new elements and uncertainties?

Wilson