500.A15A4 General Committee/1029: Telegram (part air)
The Adviser to the American Delegation (Mayer) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 14—noon.]
955. Following is brief résumé of situation resulting from recent Council meeting as we see it here with special reference to background for disarmament activity.
The treatment of the Saar and Yugoslav-Hungarian questions at the extraordinary meeting of the Council following Baldwin’s speech in the House of Commons and Laval’s in the Chamber have measurably improved the atmosphere in Europe. British policy seems rather definitely oriented toward the position for which the French have so ardently hoped, namely, abandonment of isolation and intervention on the Continent in a decisive manner. This was the outstanding feature of recent occurrences at Geneva. At the same time French foreign affairs are in the hands of a man who seems naturally inclined toward rather than against a Franco-German understanding. Laval did a fine piece of work here. He gave satisfaction to the Little Entente without embittering their opponents. The chance for a Franco-Italian understanding which was at stake has not been lessened, possibly improved. For the moment at least pro-Soviet influence is less strong in the French Government. At the same time Russia has been quieted if not satisfied by the recent Franco-Soviet agreement32 colloquially described here as a promise not to betray each other during the forthcoming political maneuvering. With England seemingly [Page 205] “continental minded” not only are France’s worries greatly lessened but Italy’s with her long background vis-à-vis English policy must feel as well that she no longer need have the same fears for the balance in Europe either with regard to France or to Germany. Italy could therefore adopt a different attitude respecting Hungary at the recent League meeting than otherwise might have been the case. This contributed materially to the advantageous settlement of the Yugoslav complaint. There was doubtless a financial aspect to this angle of the general situation.
This settlement showed the desirability of the League as a place at which such matters could be compulsorily considered. But it also proved the fact that there could only be solution by agreement among the big powers.
This settlement was obtained in circumstances of the greatest delicacy. Italy was probably more guilty than Hungary with respect to terrorist activities against Yugoslavia. French negligence at Marseilles in regard to the protection of King Alexander33 was the proximate cause of the tragedy. Both France and Italy knowing these facts had to act accordingly at the Council and with greatest circumspection. The Little Entente knew this and took due advantage. Things were on a knife edge all the time. The Russians had just resumed their own international terrorist methods. Therefore the only principal participant at the Council with really clean hands was England, who made a magnificent use of this position.
The net of all this seems to be that the stage is now set for a rapprochement between Germany and France permitting of betterment of relations generally throughout Europe and with the possibility of eventual arrangements for long-term political and economic stability.
Everyone was too occupied with the immediate questions to consider disarmament matters. My talks with the British indicated that while they had nothing definite in mind at the moment they felt the imperative need of the limitation of land armaments to forestall military competition in Europe. The treaty on manufacture of and trade in arms we recently submitted will doubtless be the immediate work of the Conference. I am inclined to believe however that the Department should anticipate a resumption of activity here of a more extensive character after the Saar question has been liquidated assuming it will be satisfactorily settled. Conversation with the Secretariat and various committee chairmen here indicates January 28 as the earliest date for beginning committee work. It may be later.
Mailed to London for Davis, Paris, Rome, Berlin.