862.00/2787
The Chief of the Division of Western European Affairs (Boal) to the Secretary of State
Mr. Secretary: I have recently had occasion to talk with some of our consular officers stationed in Germany regarding their impression of political developments there. After talking with them, and on the basis of other information received in the Department, I have come to the conclusion that there is a strong possibility of a return to the monarchy in Germany within the next year. The Von Papen cabinet rests upon the support of a group of industrialists headed by Warmbold. The same group constitutes a considerable portion of the support of the Hitler party and have made possible Hitler’s continuous successes. This group has analogies with the pre-war industrial groups which counted for so much in the support of the Kaiser. They are now supporting the military elements in Germany. They have an innate liking for the titles and ceremonies of a monarchy and a belief in the value of a figurehead in controlling the lower middle classes and the more responsible elements in the working classes of Germany. They say that Hindenburg, who has fulfilled that function, is aging and may disappear at any moment. Hitler [Page 296] himself is not the type of leader whom they would wish to see either President or Chancellor, nor has he shown any inclination to assume responsibility himself. If the Hitler party is to come into power later, or is to share power with elements of the present government, there must be provided a responsible man whom the industrialists can control more readily than they can Hitler, who will be not an Austrian (as Hitler is) but if possible a Prussian, who will make some appeal to the traditionalism and conservative feeling of the German middle classes.
The two most unpopular things in Germany today are the Versailles Treaty and the ensuing series of reparation agreements. It seems most likely that Germany is about to repudiate reparations completely and will also seek a favorable opportunity and moment to repudiate the military clauses and perhaps all of the Versailles Treaty. Under the constitution of Weimar any German election after the dissolution of the Reichstag must be held within two months. I believe the Hitlerites, as well as the present cabinet, distrust the outcome of such elections for they believe that they might still result in some balance of power between the liberal elements and the national socialists and present governing groups, which would necessitate a political compromise government in Germany. I think it is likely that they will attempt to carry on beyond the two month period, without elections, possibly by a coup d’état, calculated to lead to the restoration of some member of the Imperial family. Discouragement with the republic is strong in Germany. If a German looks backward the first happy period his memory reaches is in the reign of the last Kaiser.17
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The following note, written in longhand, is appended to the above memorandum:
“During a call on Mr. Castle this morning the German Ambassador expressed his belief that a restoration of the monarchy in Germany was improbable but indicated that he expected something like a dictatorship. I am inclined to discount this a little as the Ambassador knows that a return of the Hohenzollerns would not be popular in this country and would naturally wish to discourage the rumors which have appeared in our press on the subject. P.L.B.”
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