File No. 195/166
The Commercial Adviser of the British Embassy ( Crawford ) to the Counselor for the Department of State ( Polk )
[Received December 18.]
Dear Mr. Counsellor: We are informed by the Foreign Office that a memorandum in the following sense was communicated to Mr. Colby in London:
1. Total world tonnage now available for ocean-going trade is approximately 45,000,000 tons dead-weight; about one-half British; of the remainder about three-fifths Allied and two-fifths neutral.
It is estimated that world building can overtake losses if United States can build 9,000,000 tons dead-weight a year.
2. Great Britain has now about 23,000,000 tons dead-weight oceangoing shipping of which 3,000,000 tons are allocated to Allies.
We are endeavouring to allocate a further 750,000 tons to France and Italy, but this can only be done at the most serious cost to this country. Even if it were not given British imports next year would be reduced to about 28,000,000 tons as compared with about 34,000,000 this year. But by drastic reduction of imports and ruthless sacrifice of commercial interests we hope to carry on the present and future assistance to our Allies.
3. Even this assistance will not meet essential requirements of France and Italy. We hope that the United States will aim at providing for an average continuous employment for France and Italy of not less than one and three-quarter million tons dead-weight excluding oilers of which 500,000 tons should be provided immediately and the remainder as United States shipbuilding programme develops.
4. As regards tankers we have not sufficient tonnage to meet our vital requirements and the United States have been asked to provide us at once with 100,000 tons dead-weight and a further 200,000 tons as soon as possible.
[Page 648]5. In suggesting the above to the United States, present and prospective ocean-going tonnage at the United States’ disposal and her own military requirements for tonnage have been carefully considered. On the assumption that Mr. Colby’s estimated programme of 5,000,000 tons could be carried out next year we estimate that the United States should be able to provide the Allies with assistance suggested and to transport and maintain in France by the end of 1918 an army of 1,000,000 men.
We are to point out that the above estimates were accepted by the Allied shipping representatives at the recent Paris conference.
The shipping position as there presented by British representatives was based on the assumption that the United States shipbuilding programme would provide at least 5,000,000 tons dead-weight next year and in the hope that this could be increased to 9,000,000 tons per annum. A reduction upon even the smaller figure would be bound to have most serious effects upon the prosecution of the war in the near future.
We are accordingly instructed to beg you to impress upon the authorities concerned the urgent necessity of taking all steps required for the completion of the above programme.
My Government regard it as of the highest importance that they should be informed at the earliest possible moment as to the amount of tonnage that the United States can be relied upon to provide as this is an absolutely vital factor in the Allied shipping programme.
Believe me [etc.]