File No. 763.72/7528
The Ambassador in Russia ( Francis) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 1, 11.40 a.m.]
1913. Sent no conditions cable yesterday because I could not see Minister of Foreign Affairs who telephoned canceling evening conference, saying that he had important business with the Council of Ministers and would make his statement to the Council of Republic to-day or to-morrow. Told him should like personal conference before his making such a statement. [Minister] telephoned cannot see me to-day but I learn from Foreign Office will not make his statement to the Council of Republic to-day. Suspect that he is having difficulty with statement and may deliver it without seeing me; of course I shall not ask to see same nor what it contains but hope he will talk freely thereof. Council of Republic and Council of Ministers may both attempt to control editing instructions concerning Paris conference.
As already expressed, I sincerely doubt wisdom of Allied conference now and should like it abandoned if possible. Russia is sick but can be more effectively treated at home than abroad. Paris conference looked upon here as a peace meeting and if should not so develop, which God forbid, may increase peace sentiment in Russia [Page 285] and possibly augment feeling for separate peace on the ground that Russia having demonstrated to Allies her unfitness for further prosecution of war is justified in making peace for her own preservation. Consequently I fear Paris conference fraught with danger for the Allied cause.
It is possible this Government may be deposed by Bolsheviki who will assume right to organize their own Government which would undoubtedly attempt peace negotiations on general lines if possible but separately if not. If no notice should be made to Allies by Russia of her unfitness [sic] such effort of Bolsheviki would be futile as national honor would be violated thereby and Russian pride would oppose same. Result would be overturning of Bolsheviki government, spirit of army would be much improved and Russia would renew war activity. Government is doing its best to restore army discipline and any conference looking to peace renders such task more difficult. If ten million or more soldiers should be demobilized under present prevailing Bolsheviki sentiment, God pity Russia. If conference necessary it should be postponed sixty days in my judgment. If conference must be held please cable date and American representative to whom I shall write my personal views of Russian conditions and factors therein if Department approves.