File No. 763.72119/289
The Ambassador in France ( Sharp ) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 30, 12.30 p. m.]
1769. In a talk of some length with Mr. Cambon of the Foreign Office, during which I brought to his attention the subject matter of your circular in explanation of the statements attributed to you appearing in the American press, while expressing unofficially his belief that it was not likely any agreement could be reached at the present time through any negotiations looking to the ending of the war, he nevertheless quite emphatically gave it as his opinion that the war would be finished at the end of three months or at the longest six months. This view is significant to me because it seems incredible that those well informed of the true situation can believe that the forces of the Central powers can be conquered or even driven back to the Rhine on the west front in any such time. From my own talks with Mr. Cambon at other times, I think he must share in that opinion. It indicates to me rather that the Allied powers have great confidence on account of their tremendously increased preparations in men and ammunitions to be able in the early spring to achieve such successes and thereby demonstrate their power so as to enable them to force the Central powers to yield or give better terms. I am confirmed in this opinion in part, as it applies to the hope of their winning more pronounced successes, from the information which was given to me yesterday during the call at the Embassy of another [Page 127] prominent member of the Government in the Foreign Office who told me that some time ago England and France had purchased from Norway its entire supply of sulphur amounting to 400,000 tons, a supply to which Germany has looked after being shut off from those of Spain and Italy, and of which product she had still remaining until recently quite a store. He pointed out further to me that in that fact he saw an explanation for the very destructive warfare which German submarines had carried on against Norwegian ships in particular. In addition he expressed the belief that from information given to them the questions of the food supply in Germany was much more critical than supposed to be. My own opinion, which has not been modified by any of the events of the past year but rather strengthened, is that by the use of trench warfare, which has been developed to a wonderful extent by both sides, it has become almost impossible to make any marked advances even at the expense of enormous quantities of material as well as the loss of great numbers of men. Only acute domestic conditions or some unlooked-for tragic event can change this outlook for many months to come. Editorial comments on the President’s, note in the French papers are in the main much more fair and temperate than those which have appeared in the London press. Only the local New York Herald continues its daily diatribes against any consideration being given to the suggestions contained in the note. These, together with contributions to its column from like-disposed Americans, occasionally find their way to the French papers. Forwarding in pouch copies of press comments.