File No. 893.00/2431
Minister Reinsch to the Secretary of State
Peking, May 17, 1916.
Sir: As indicated in my telegram of May 16, the effect of the announcement by the southern leaders of their recognition of Li Yuan-hung as President and of the organization of a Provisional Government in the southern provinces has had the effect, for the time being, of crystallizing support for His Excellency Yuan Shih-kai among the northern governors. This is particularly apparent in His Excellency Feng Kuo-chang. Although he has not in terms committed himself, his recent expressions indicate that he holds the opinion that the temporary retention of Yuan Shih-kai affords the only means of avoiding anarchy. Upon his suggestion, a meeting of the governors of the loyal provinces has been called to assemble at Nanking on or about May 25 (originally May 15). The northern generals seem to look upon the move of the southerners as an attempt to dictate without taking counsel, and in this sense they resent it.
Whether the representatives of the military governors, when assembled, will manifest sufficient political sense to establish a united policy and to avoid giving their action the character of a reactionary military movement devoid of constitutional aims remains to be seen; and on this same matter hinges the possibility of creating a policy which either the south may accept in subsequent council at Shanghai, or be forced to submit to by the united strength of the northern provinces.
The leaders of the Peking Government are firmly resolved to carry through a constitutionalist policy; and while the opposition party even more loudly proclaim constitutional aims, their appointment to supreme command of General Chang Chun-hsuan, whose blood-thirstiness and unintelligence are notorious, is not entirely reassuring as to what might happen should they further succeed in shaking the authority of the Central Government.
[Page 82]The resignation of His Excellency Yuan Shih-kai and the designation of Li Yuan-hung as his successor for the unexpired term would appear on the surface to form a solution of the difficulties created by the loss of prestige and trust on the part of the President. But Li Yuan-hung has never enjoyed any large influence over the northern governors, nor are they at present inclined to submit to his leadership. This feeling has been accentuated by the action of the south in forcing him to the front. From the point of view of weakening the support of Yuan Shih-kai and of assuring a basis for united action, the last move of the south is considered by most people as a tactical mistake.
The situation in Peking is quiet and the authorities still have matters well in hand. There are, however, rumors of impending unrest among the troops in connection with their monthly pay. Should the Government find itself unable to make payments promptly, disturbances are likely to occur. It is possible that the troops, realizing the difficulties of the Government and instigated thereto by interested parties, may demand extra pay. Every detail of the situation is being watched from day to day by the Legation.
I have [etc.]