File No. 893.00/2557
Minister Reinsch to the Secretary of State
Peking, December 13, 1916.
Sir: I have the honor to report briefly on the general political situation: Unfortunately, the contrasts between different parties and factions, which have been previously reported upon, have become more acute as time goes on. This is particularly true of the hostility between the Kuo Min Tang, which is the chief party represented in Parliament, and the military group, known as the Pei Yang Party, which is headed by his excellency Tuan Chi-jui.
The Chin Pu Tang being in the minority in Parliament has been drawn somewhat closer to the Pei Yang group, although no amalgamation has been affected. The faction of Cantonese, under Liang Shih-yi, which is represented by Chu Chi-chien and Yeh Kung-cho, now in exile in Tientsin, is also playing a role and is leaning toward alliance with the military party.
Under the circumstances, opinions differ widely as to the virtues and vices of the existing Parliament. On the one hand, it is charged that Parliament has not accomplished any positive work, that it is making no headway with the discussion of the Constitution, which is its principal duty, and that it has exhausted itself in matters of personal politics and in attempted impeachments of General Tuan and other high officials to whom it is opposed; also, that in the matter of appointments, its sole policy has been to embarrass the Cabinet. On the other hand, the defenders of Parliament urge that it has restrained itself, that the constitutional questions before it are of great difficulty, and that the Cabinet has not loyally cooperated by placing before Parliament legislative measures for action.
The very status of Parliament is a matter of difference of opinion. Its extralegal character is urged by its opponents, who claim that it exists only by tolerance of the military party for the purpose of working out more feasible constitutional arrangements, and particularly of reducing the number of members in future parliaments, [Page 97] The adherents of Parliament claim for it a plentitude of legislative power. With respect to the Constitution, the main controversy has thus far raged about the question as to whether the organization of provincial governments is to be included in the Constitution. As the military party and the Chin Pu Tang elements are at present in control of the majority of the provincial governors, the Kuo Min Tang elements fear that the election of a new Parliament would be managed in a way unfavorable to their party. They therefore propose the granting of a large measure of provincial autonomy, even to the election of the governors by a popular vote. This is opposed by the other parties.
With respect to personal questions, the following have been of importance: Sun Hung-yi, Minister of the Interior, aroused the decided disfavor of the Premier and most of his associates in the Cabinet by his political manipulations and his inattention to the business of his Ministry, which he seemed to regard chiefly as a place in which to provide his adherents with positions. The dismissal of Mr. Sun was urged upon the President, who, however, was reluctant to act on account of Mr. Sun’s numerous following in the Parliament. The matter was complicated through opposition which had been organized against General Hsu, the secretary of the Cabinet. General Hsu is a young official of considerable ability and readiness to take decisive action. He was General Tuan’s chief adviser and assistant. In order to settle the Sun affair, the President invited his excellency Hsu Shih-chang to come to Peking as a mediator. Through him it was arranged, to satisfy all parties, that Sun and General Hsu were to resign. The place of General Hsu has been taken by General Chang Kuo-kan, who belongs to the moderate military wing. Mr. Sun’s position has not yet been filled, as Parliament has refused favorable action on the nominees suggested by the Premier.
As reported in my No. 1296 of the 9th instant,2 the appointment of Mr. Tsao Ju-lin as special envoy to Japan has also been made a means of opposition to the Premier.
The carrying of party differences into the field of foreign relations has had the effect of delaying the settlement of the Lao Hsi Kai incident. The faction of Sun Hung-yi systematically instigated excitement about the Lao Hsi Kai matter in order to embarrass Tuan’s Government. Parliament also refused consent to a loan of $5,000,000, negotiated by the Minister of Finance with Japanese capitalists. The necessary reference of international agreements to Parliament is naturally used by the latter in an attempt to increase its power. The danger of this situation is that parliamentary action might be determined rather by party, than by national consideration.
It is feared that at any time a complete deadlock may arise between General Tuan’s Cabinet and the Parliament, leading to the demand on the part of the militarists that Parliament, being an extralegal body, should be dissolved, and on the part of the parliamentarians that force should be met with force.
Most serious consequences would arise from such an open conflict. The Kuo Min Tang leaders in the south, under the guidance of Mr. Tang Shao-yi, are little inclined to compromise. It has been reported [Page 98] to me from various reliable sources that they are at the present time seriously contemplating the secession of the southern provinces and the establishment of an independent government south of the Yangtze should that be any open conflict in the north. They have attempted to gain over General Feng Kuo-chang, the Vice President, to their side, apparently with the purpose of raising a powerful opposition to the Pei Yang party in the north, powerful enough to overbear the military party of Tuan in a contest in which the south would then exercise the decisive influence.
The latest reports which have reached me indicate that General Feng has not committed himself to the southern Kuo Min Tang leaders, and that at the present time the secession of the southern provinces is the policy which appeals most to the Shanghai faction.
Men of moderate views in Peking believe that Tang Shao-yi should be invited to form a Cabinet; in this way, unity would be preserved and a test could be made of the possibility of governing through a parliamentary party. If the experiment should be successful, Chinese unity would be saved, if not, Mr. Tang Shao-yi’s leadership would be eliminated in favor of more moderate men and the danger of secession would have been avoided.
There is, however, such an air of intense mutual suspicion and fear, that the leaders of the military party are little inclined to give over the reins of power to the opposition.
I have [etc.]
- Not printed.↩