File No. 893.00/1447.
The American Minister to the Secretary of State.
Peking, August 3, 1912.
Sir: Referring to your telegram [of July 20] repeated from Tokyo July 22, I have the honor to report that on July 26 I received a call from Mr. Ijuin, the Japanese Minister. He said his Government had informed him of your inquiry or suggestion concerning recognition of the Chinese Republic, presented to his Foreign Office in Tokyo through the American Ambassador. He said his Government had asked for his opinion on the subject but before replying he called to confer with me and to learn my opinion. I replied substantially as follows:
I suppose the basis for recognition is the existence of a government which has the appearance of stability or offers reasonable assurance of permanence. There may be reason to doubt whether or not the present Government in China gives evidence of such right to recognition; I had some doubt on the subject myself. But after careful consideration of the situation, I am now of the opinion that the present Government affords reasonable assurance that, if not permanent, it will at least last an indefinite time. * * * For these and other reasons I am in favor of immediate recognition and think that it will be both a friendly and helpful act on the part of the powers to give it. * * *
The Japanese Minister said that he was of my opinion, or, rather, he agreed with me upon the whole, but with him it is largely a question of the proper time. He is afraid that recognition at this time will serve to influence the ambition, increase the arrogance and add to the excitement of the young fledglings now in the Government and in the National Assembly. It is now very hard to deal with them and recognition would make it still harder.
I replied that at present, as a result of the recent Cabinet resignations, very few of the class to whom he referred are in the Government. * * * Now that they are out of the Cabinet and their places filled with men who are more closely identified with Yuan, the latter will be entitled to credit for recognition and will be made that much stronger in his position, especially in the eyes of his own people.
Mr. Ijuin seemed to accept my estimate of the situation as correct and left leaving the impression on my mind that he would report to his Government in favor of recognition.
The next day however, Mr. Midzuno, the First Secretary of the Japanese Legation, also called to see me. * * * He thinks there is a probability of considerable feeling and conflict at the coming election, and the result may be destructive of all our hopes for peace and order.
I told him I had thought of that phase of the situation. I had however made inquiry among the best informed Chinese I knew, and they all seemed to think the election will not develop any serious trouble and that Yuan is reasonably sure to be reelected.
[Page 85]But Mr. Midzuno was not convinced. He thinks there are enough clouds in the political sky to suggest a storm of some kind.
The day following Mr. Krupensky, the Russian Minister, also called and he brought up the same question. He was quite pessimistic in his view of future possibilities. He said he thought his Government will reply that the time for recognition has not arrived. I did not argue the question with him. * * *
I have not seen or talked with the other ministers on the subject. They are nearly all out of the city on vacations. * * *
I have [etc.]