No. 472.
Mr. Morgan
to Mr. Blaine.
Mexico, August 25, 1881. (Received September 9.)
Sir: * * * On the 17th instant * * * called on me. He was going for a few days to Orizaba, and had come to give me good-bye. He asked me very abruptly whether Mexico had made any answer to the profer of arbitration made by the President of the United States to act as arbitrator between Mexico and Guatemala. He informed me that I had received a dispatch from you upon the subject; that a copy of that dispatch had been given to Señor Mariscal, and that the Mexican Government was furious. I asked him from whom he had obtained all this information; he shrugged his shoulders and replied that I could answer yes or no. To which I replied that it was not necessary I should answer at all. He endeavored to renew the conversation but I would not permit it.
In the afternoon I called on Señor Mariscal. I told him of the interview [Page 802] I had had with * * * and expressed my surprise that he should be informed of any negotiations which might be pending between us. * * * He replied at once that * * * must have obtained his information from Mr. Herrera. He, however, admitted that he had spoken to him upon the subject, but only in a general way.
In my opinion * * * has been employed by * * * to frighten Mr. Herrera, and he has succeeded in doing so, and he was sent to me for the purpose of ascertaining, if possible, to what lengths the United States would go in preserving the peace between the two countries.
The following day (18th instant) Mr. Herrera called on me and informed me that the Guatemalan minister at Washington had written him that you had stated to him that in case Mexico refused the proposed arbitration and attempted to harm Guatemala, the United States would protect her by force if necessary.
As I have before stated to you, I have on several occasions, when Mr. Herrera has spoken to me upon the question now pending between his country and Mexico, said to him that if I were in his place I would keep away from Señor Mariscal as much as possible until Mexico should decide positively whether to accept the mediation of the United States or not. He always replied that he would.
On the evening of the 19th instant Mr. Herrera called at my residence.
He had just had an interview with Señor Mariscal. He told me that Señor Mariscal had said to him that it was impossible to settle their disputes by arbitration; that Guatemala claimed the whole of Chiapas and that even if he, Señor Mariscal, and the President were willing to give it up (which they were not) they would not be permitted to do so; that the only way the matter could be settled was by war; that the application of Guatemala to the United States for their intervention was an insult; that Mexico would not accept it, even if her refusal should result in a war with that country. At the same time he said Mr. Herrera need not fancy that such an event was at all probable, inasmuch as the United States had too great an interest in Mexico to jeopardize it by taking up Guatemala’s defense, where she had no interest.
Mr. Herrera then said that he appreciated the difficulty which presented itself to Mexico’s submitting the questions at issue to an arbitration, and he inquired of Señor Mariscal whether it would not be possible for them to arrive at an understanding upon a different basis, viz, that Guatemala should cede all her claim to Chiapas and Soconusco, upon Mexico paying an indemnity to Guatemala therefor.
Señor Mariscal replied, after some reflection, that that might be possible, although he would give no positive answer, but he said arbitration was not to be discussed, repeating that he preferred war with the United States to that.
In my opinion Mr. Herrera made a mistake when he sought an interview with Señor Mariscal, and he made a greater one when he allowed himself to make the above proposition. Señor Mariscal, when he told him his suggestions might be entertained, said so only that negotiations might be resumed between them. Mexico has no money with which to purchase anything. If she had she would not purchase territory from Guatemala. When she wants it, she will take it. And I submit to your better judgment whether, if the negotiations upon this subject are to be continued, Mr. Herrera should not be advised to allow them to take their course, for you will, I think, readily perceive that if I make a proposition to the effect that the differences between the two countries [Page 803] be submitted to arbitration, and he makes a proposition to sell Guatemala’s rights, we are playing at cross purposes.
In my dispatch No. 253 (August 11, 1881) I expressed the hope that the Mexican Government would accept a proposition for mediation if made something in the form of the one I suggested. It is apparent that if they can resume direct negotiations with Guatemala they will do so.
It is very certain that Señor Mariscal’s conversation with Mr. Herrera (as the latter reported it) was in tone and matter very different from the one he held with me. It would indicate that Señor Mariscal had changed his mind since our interview, or that he had been instructed differently, and tend to confirm the suggestions of * * * that Mexico was “very angry,” and gives good ground to fear that if the United States should now retire from the negotiation and leave Guatemala to herself, there will soon be nothing left of that already very small republic.
I am, &c.,